Report Title - The weekly report focuses on rebar and iron ore futures, titled "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore" [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both rebar and iron ore face significant short - term rebound pressure, and the intensity of winter storage demand restocking should be monitored [2] - Whether the prices of rebar and iron ore can continue to rebound depends on the strength of winter storage restocking and the recovery of hot metal demand [6][8] Summary by Category Rebar Futures - The rebar 05 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation driven by long - position main force's position increase. It closed at 3144 yuan/ton on Friday, up 22 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.7% [4] Spot - The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, with average trading volume. The national average rebar price increased by 21 yuan to 3337 yuan/ton. Prices in different regions showed different changes, such as remaining unchanged in Shanghai, rising by 30 yuan in Hangzhou, 20 yuan in Beijing, 40 yuan in Tianjin, and 10 yuan in Guangzhou [4] Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 79.31%, up 0.37% month - on - month and 2.13% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78% month - on - month and 1.80% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 72.97%, up 4.34% month - on - month and 6.95% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 56.91%, up 1.76% month - on - month and 6.27% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output increased by 2.82 tons to 191.04 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period [4] - Cost and Profit: For short - process steel mills in East China, the estimated cost of electric furnaces was 3169 yuan, up 6 yuan, and the profit of rebar electric furnaces was a loss of 179 yuan, with the loss increasing by 16 yuan compared with last week. For long - process steel mills in East China, the estimated cost of crude steel was 2967 yuan, up 42 yuan, and the profit of rebar blast furnaces was 23 yuan, down 33 yuan compared with last week [4] - Demand: The building material trading volume increased slightly, while the apparent consumption of rebar decreased slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials increased by 0.2 tons to 9.63 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.48 tons to 174.96 tons, remaining at a low level compared with the same period [4] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar started to accumulate slightly. The total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 tons to 438.11 tons, with social inventory increasing by 7.52 tons to 290.18 tons and factory inventory increasing by 8.56 tons to 147.93 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period [4][5] Basis - The lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 116 yuan over the rebar 05 contract, an increase of 14 yuan compared with last week. The rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will likely shrink in the future [6] Comprehensive Judgement - With the end of some steel mills' maintenance, the output of five major steel products has stabilized slightly, and rebar output has increased slightly for four consecutive weeks. The apparent demand for rebar has continued to decline, and rebar inventory has started to accumulate slightly. Attention should be paid to the decline in off - season demand [6] Iron Ore Futures - The iron ore 05 contract maintained a rebound trend driven by long - position main force's position increase. It closed at 814.5 yuan/ton on Friday, up 25.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 3.17% [6] Spot - The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to decline steadily, with average trading volume. The prices of different iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port and Tianjin Port showed different increases, and the price of Tangshan 66% iron ore concentrate index decreased by 4 yuan to 976 yuan/ton [6] Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 5th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2742.7 tons, a decrease of 316.9 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments were 1939.6 tons, a decrease of 174.1 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1615.3 tons, a decrease of 252.3 tons. Brazilian shipments were 803.2 tons, a decrease of 142.7 tons. The total arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons, and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons. Currently, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore are at medium - to - high levels compared with the same period [6] - Demand: The daily average ore - unloading volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons, a decrease of 1.94 tons compared with last week. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot increased by 12.55 tons to 98.33 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 229.5 tons, an increase of 2.07 tons compared with last week and 5.13 tons compared with last year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 283.28 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons. Currently, the demand indicators are at medium - to - high levels compared with the same period [8] - Inventory: As of the 9th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, reaching 16275.26 tons, an increase of 304.37 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons. The inventory at ports is at a medium - to - high level, while the inventory of steel mills is at a relatively low level compared with the same period [8] Basis - The optimal delivery product, Qingdao Port's Carajás fines, was priced at 847 yuan/ton, with a premium of 33 yuan over the iron ore 05 contract, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with last week. The iron ore basis is above the average, and it is expected that the iron ore basis will likely shrink in the future [8] Comprehensive Judgement - The short - term imported iron ore shipments have decreased slightly as the year - end rush for shipments weakens, and the arrivals are expected to rebound significantly next week. The port inventory is under some pressure. The daily average hot metal output has continued to rise, and steel mills' daily consumption has increased, with steel mills continuing to restock slightly [8]
螺矿短期反弹压力较大，关注冬储需求补库力度
Cai Da Qi Huo·2026-01-12 04:11