金银牛市基本面未变，多头卷土重来

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental factors supporting the bull market in gold and silver remain unchanged, and new supporting factors are emerging. After a period of consolidation, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to rise again and reach new historical highs [6][7] 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver first declined and then rebounded. By the end of last Friday, the international gold price returned above $4,500 per ounce, and the international silver price returned to $79.7 per ounce [2] Short - term Negative Factors - According to Bloomberg's 2026 weight configuration, the weight of silver will be significantly reduced from the current 9.6% to 3.94%, forcing funds and ETFs tracking the index to sell a large number of silver positions. The CME raised the performance margin for precious metals on January 8, which is the third such notice in nearly a month, having a short - term negative impact on precious metal prices. Before the release of the December 2025 non - farm payroll data, the market was cautious, leading to a short - term pullback in gold and silver prices [3] Impact of Non - farm Payroll Data - The December 2025 non - farm payroll report showed that the number of new jobs added was 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 70,000. The data for November was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000, and the data for October was revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000, with a total downward revision of 76,000 for the two months. The new job growth was the weakest since 2003. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest level in 2025, reflecting some resilience in the labor market. However, in 2025, the total number of new jobs added was 584,000, far lower than 2 million in 2024, the weakest increase since 2020. After the release of the report, the probability of a rate cut in January dropped from 10% to nearly 0%, and the probability in March dropped to 30%, with the first expected rate cut postponed to June 2026. Although the non - farm payroll report reduced the short - term probability of a rate cut, gold prices rose instead of falling, indicating that the negative news had been priced in. In the medium term, the weakening of the US job market supports the continuation of the gold and silver bull market [4][5] Fundamental Support - The continuous rise in precious metal prices is supported by fundamentals. The international situation is becoming more volatile, which promotes the rise in gold prices. The supply - demand situation of silver remains tight, and China's restriction on refined silver exports since January 1 may exacerbate the global supply shortage [6][7]