沪铜或维持高位震荡趋势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][34] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an oscillating market, ranging from around 100,050 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 105,500 yuan/ton [9] (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Governor Milan expects a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026, which is expected to create about one million jobs without triggering inflation. He believes that US policy is still substantially above the neutral level. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 11.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 88.4%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 40.3%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 55.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.3% [4][12][33] (3) Supply and Demand Situation - China's copper smelting fees at the bottom: As of January 8, 2026, China's copper smelter rough smelting fee was - 44.96 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 US cents/pound. As of November 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [15] - Decline in power grid construction investment growth rate: As of November 2025, the power grid construction investment was 560.39 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%, with a slowdown in growth rate. From a seasonal perspective, the current investment is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [21] (4) Inventory Situation - Global visible inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543 tons, an increase of 35,201 tons from the previous week. As of January 7, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 18.1% [24] - Domestic invisible market inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 101,800 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 43,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 75,100 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [24]