纯碱周报：“现实弱”与“预期博弈”-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's rise in the soda ash market was more of a rebound driven by sentiment and funds, lacking solid demand support. With increasing supply and rapid inventory accumulation, the upside for prices is severely restricted. The market has entered a phase of intense confrontation between "weak reality" and "expectations," and it is expected to continue the pattern of high - level oscillations, waiting for new drivers [8][36][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Among them, light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, an increase of 4.43% from the previous period. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a week - on - week increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.24% [11] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,572,700 tons, a 4.26% increase from Monday and an 11.67% increase from the previous Wednesday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 101,900 tons or 6.93%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons [14] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [15] (4) Profit Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit (per two - ton) of the co - production method for soda ash in China was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The profit decreased slightly due to the increase in the cost side and the weak and stable soda ash market [20] - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash in China was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The profit improved because the soda ash price rebounded after a decline [24] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national floating glass was 150,100 tons, a 0.96% decrease compared to the 1st. The weekly output from January 2 - 8, 2026, was 1,059,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [27] - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 55,518,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1,348,000 weight boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [31] 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 1.31% week - on - week, while the price of well - mine salt in East China remained unchanged. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions decreased or remained stable, except for heavy soda ash in the Northwest, which increased by 2.33%. The price of floating glass increased by 1.03% week - on - week, while the price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass decreased by 4.35%. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 2.35%, the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% [35] 4. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contract of soda ash futures showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the weekly line closing slightly positive. The market sentiment gradually returned to rationality, and there was a deep confrontation between "short - term sentiment game" and "accumulated fundamental pressure" [36] - The market showed a typical "strong supply and weak demand" characteristic. The supply - side pressure increased sharply, the inventory accumulated significantly, and the enterprise shipment volume and shipment rate decreased. However, due to previous losses and macro - level optimistic expectations, the price had a psychological bottom support, resulting in volatile prices [36] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations for single - side trading, not to conduct arbitrage, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [38]