长江期货粕类油脂周报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month 03 contract is supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited due to spot supply - demand relaxation and state - reserve soybean auctions. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation [8]. - The three major oils show a differentiated trend in the short term. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited by the potentially bearish MPOB December report and South American new - crop soybean harvest expectations. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend due to the expected marginal relaxation of domestic supply - demand and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products [72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot End - As of January 9, the East China spot price of soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton weekly; the M2605 contract closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis quote was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. US soybean prices rebounded from the bottom, supported by China's purchases, but the upside was limited. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell, with price pressure after the auction information was released on Thursday [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End - The market maintains the expectation of a bountiful South American soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Global soybean supply growth is lower than demand growth, with ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio declining. In 2025/26, global soybean production is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports are expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. The supply pattern is tight first and then loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high pig and poultry inventories and good cost - performance. In the first week of 2026, the national oil mill soybean inventory rose to 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% week - on - week and 19.48% year - on - year; the national oil mill soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it rises to 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bu, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - The near - month 03 contract is strongly supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The near - strong and far - weak pattern continues [8]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot End - As of the week of January 9, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 98 yuan/ton to 8682 yuan/ton compared with December 31; the Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil rose 90 yuan/ton to 8680 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 8 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton. The soybean oil main 05 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 7994 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil rose 110 yuan/ton to 8490 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 22 yuan/ton to 496 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 9042 yuan/ton; the Fangchenggang Grade 3 rapeseed oil remained at 9920 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis rose 45 yuan/ton to 878 yuan/ton [72][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory in December to rise to 3 million tons, a near - 7 - year high. However, the latest high - frequency data shows a significant decline in production and a sharp increase in exports in January. Indonesia may continue to confiscate plantations and increase export taxes in 2026. In China, palm oil prices have fallen to improve import profits, and new purchases have limited the de - stocking speed. As of the week of January 2, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 733,800 tons [72]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The growth of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season is generally good, and early - sown Brazilian soybeans have started harvesting, competing with US soybeans. The market expects the USDA January report to be bullish, and China's purchases of US soybeans are approaching 10 million tons. The 45Z tax credit rule may stimulate soybean oil biodiesel demand. In China, soybean auctions have resumed, but the seasonal low of soybean arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 and stricter customs inspections help soybean oil de - stock. As of the week of January 2, domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.081 million tons [72]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tight domestic supply - demand situation is gradually easing. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be crushed in January, and Russian rapeseed oil exports will be more active after the holiday. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may lead to the cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products. As of the week of January 2, domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 270,000 tons [72]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary - In the short term, the three major oils show a differentiated trend. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend. In the long term, palm oil will seasonally de - stock in the first quarter of 2026, and soybean oil may rebound, while rapeseed oil will continue to be weak [72]. 3.2.6 Strategy Suggestion - For soybean and palm oils, be cautious about chasing up due to limited short - term rebounds. For rapeseed oil, gradually liquidate previous long positions. Focus on this week's USDA and MPOB reports and China - Canada negotiations [72].