Haitong Securities International·2026-01-12 05:07Investment Rating - Investment advice emphasizes high-quality development in the real estate sector, with low-valuation real estate showing potential for gains. The sector is expected to experience valuation recovery in 2026 due to improved regulations and policies [20]. Core Insights - The Fifteenth Five-Year Plan focuses on high-quality development in real estate, with market enthusiasm on the rise. The current total market cap of the AH real estate sector is misaligned with its economic position, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. - The report highlights a decrease in planned land reserve acquisitions, with a total planned reserve exceeding RMB 700 billion. By 4Q25, 5,364 idle land plots are planned for acquisition, covering 290 million square meters, totaling RMB 706 billion [20][3]. - Special bond issuance remains high, with over RMB 300 billion in land reserve special bonds issued by 4Q25, covering 43% of planned reserves, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous quarter [20][3]. Summary by Sections Land Reserve Planning - In 4Q25, the new planned land reserve amount is RMB 79.8 billion, down 44.4% quarter-on-quarter. The top three regions by reserve scale are Zhejiang (RMB 90.7 billion), Guangdong (RMB 88.4 billion), and Chongqing (RMB 67 billion) [20][3]. - The average discount rate for land acquisition is 0.8, with 77.6% of the new plots acquired being from the 2020-2024 period [20][3]. Special Bonds - By 4Q25, the issuance of special bonds for land reserve has reached over RMB 3,000 billion, with a coverage rate of 43% for planned reserves. The new issuance in 4Q25 is RMB 109.5 billion, maintaining a high pace [20][3]. - Local governments plan to issue RMB 4.58 trillion in new special bonds in 2025, with 6.6% allocated for acquiring idle land [20][3]. Key Companies to Watch - Key targets for investment include development companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Gemdale, as well as property management firms like China Resources Mixc and Poly Property Services [20][3].