中辉能化观点-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA, methanol: Direction看多 [2][32] - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP: Short - term rebound, bearish in the medium - long term [1][14] - PVC, glass, soda ash: Bearish consolidation [1][52][56] - Urea: Sideways consolidation [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Short - term rebound, bearish in the medium - long term [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most varieties show short - term fluctuations and medium - long - term pressure or consolidation trends [1][4] - Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have a short - term impact on oil - related products, while supply - demand fundamentals play a key role in the medium - long term [7][47] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: On January 9, WTI rose 2.35%, Brent rose 2.18%, and SC rose 1.87%. As of January 2, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 5.6 million barrels to 129.3 million barrels [5][6][8] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and South America lead to short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand relationship is in a state of over - supply during the off - season, and the downward pressure on oil prices is large [7] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - long term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing prices, and the oil price enters a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, there is a rebound, and in the medium - long term, it is under pressure. SC focuses on the range of 430 - 445 yuan/barrel [9] LPG - Market Performance: On January 9, the PG main contract closed at 4,222 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,390 (- 10) yuan/ton, 4,467 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and 4,840 (- 15) yuan/ton respectively [12] - Basic Logic: In the short - term, it rebounds with the oil price, and in the medium - long term, the oil price is under pressure. The supply - demand side shows that the refinery start - up rate has decreased, the commodity volume has decreased, and the downstream chemical demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [13] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - long term, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to move down. The LPG price still has room for compression. Pay attention to the range of 4,200 - 4,300 yuan/ton [14] L - Market Performance: The L05 closing price was 6,628 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The weighted average profit margin was compressed to a low level in the same period [16] - Basic Logic: The cost support has strengthened, but the supply side is still sufficient. The demand for shed films is gradually weakening, and the agricultural film start - up rate is accelerating to decline, facing inventory reduction pressure in the future [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of 6,600 - 6,750 yuan/ton [18] PP - Market Performance: The PP05 closing price was 6,484 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0%. The weighted average profit margin has improved slightly [20] - Basic Logic: In the short - term, high - level maintenance is maintained, and the cost support has strengthened. The supply - demand side is weak in both supply and demand. The demand side enters the off - season in January, the shutdown ratio has increased to 22%, and the short - term supply pressure has been relieved. The PDH profit has been compressed to a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [22] PVC - Market Performance: The V05 closing price was 4,905 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The main contract basis was - 255 yuan/ton [23] - Basic Logic: The adjustment of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening future exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The domestic start - up rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season. The winter device maintenance is not sustainable, and the social inventory has reached a new historical high. However, the cost support has strengthened due to the rise in calcium carbide and thermal coal prices, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [25] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of 4,700 - 4,850 yuan/ton [25] PTA - Market Performance: As of January 9, the TA05 closed at 5,108 yuan/ton, at the 88.9% percentile level in the past three months. The basis was - 70 (- 56) yuan/ton [27] - Basic Logic: The valuation is not low, the processing fee has improved, the device maintenance intensity is relatively high, the downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is not large but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - month. The cost side PX is in a weak balance [27] - Strategy Recommendation: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 focuses on the range of 5,090 - 5,230 yuan/ton [28] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The EG05 closing price was 3,639 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The overall valuation is relatively low [29] - Basic Logic: The domestic device load has increased, the downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the social inventory has a slight increase. It lacks upward driving force and fluctuates with the cost in the short - term [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. EG05 focuses on the range of 3,820 - 3,910 yuan/ton [31] Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract has reduced positions and risen, the port basis has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has strengthened [34] - Basic Logic: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device start - up rates have increased, the supply pressure still exists, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downward space may be limited [34] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. MA05 focuses on the range of 2,230 - 2,299 yuan/ton [36] Urea - Market Performance: The urea main contract closed at 1,777 yuan/ton, at the 78.3% percentile level this year. The weighted comprehensive profit was 57.41 (+ 59.71) yuan/ton [39] - Basic Logic: The absolute valuation is not low, the comprehensive profit is good, the device start - up rate has increased, the demand is weakening, the winter storage is progressing steadily but the positive effect is relatively limited, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. There is a spring fertilizer - using trading expectation [38] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. The rebound height is restricted by the supply - side pressure. UR05 focuses on the range of 1,755 - 1,785 yuan/ton [40] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 8, the NG main contract closed at 3.407 US dollars/million British thermal units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35% [43] - Basic Logic: The short - term rebound is mainly due to the sudden accident of a U.S. energy company. The supply side is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. The demand side has support during the winter consumption peak, but the supply is relatively sufficient [44] - Strategy Recommendation: The gas price is under pressure to decline. NG focuses on the range of 3.131 - 3.576 US dollars/million British thermal units [44] Asphalt - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 3,152 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The profit margin and the cracking spread have decreased [45] - Basic Logic: The raw material supply is tight and the cost has increased, but the demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has increased slightly [47] - Strategy Recommendation: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to the risk caused by the uncertainty of the raw material supply due to South American geopolitics. BU focuses on the range of 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [48] Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 closing price was 1,163 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton [50] - Basic Logic: The short - term device cold - repair supports the market, but the weak demand restricts the rebound space. The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the daily melting volume has continued to decline [52] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of 1,100 - 1,150 yuan/ton [52] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 closing price was 1,239 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The basis was - 34 yuan/ton [54] - Basic Logic: The factory inventory has started to accumulate, the demand has weakened, and the supply is in a loose pattern in the medium - long term. The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased [56] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [56]