料垒库幅度放缓

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Since mid-December 2025, the black commodity sector has shown a pattern where coking and steel mill profits on the futures market have been compressed. The prices of coking coal and iron ore have increased more, while finished steel products and coke have followed. The key factors are the expectation and realization of the bottoming - out and rebound of hot metal production, the strong performance of non - ferrous metals, and news of coal mine production capacity contraction. After the New Year's Day, the raw material supply - demand situation has improved, and coking coal inventory accumulation has slowed down, entering a state of "raw material valuation repair"[8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since the report on October 21st, the black sector has seen compressed coking and steel mill profits on the futures market. Before January, the black market was in a situation of weak steel demand, declining hot metal production, and a loose raw material supply - demand pattern, with continuous inventory accumulation of coking coal as the core trading point. After the New Year's Day, hot metal production rebounded as expected, and the supply - demand situation of raw materials improved, with coking coal inventory accumulation slowing down. The strong performance of non - ferrous metals and equity assets also led to an optimistic sentiment spill - over, driving the rebound of low - price varieties[8][9]. 3.2 Coking Coal Delivery - The delivery volume of jm2601 was the second - largest in 2025, second only to jm2505. More futures companies participated in the delivery, especially on the receiving side. The delivery parties were still mainly concentrated in Guotai Junan Futures, CITIC Futures, and Donghai Futures. The increasing activity of coking coal delivery participants is a positive development trend for the effectiveness of coking coal monthly spread and basis pricing, reflecting the essence of financial services for the real economy[11][12][13]. 3.3 Reality of Double Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - Weekly Coking Coal Supply: Domestic mines' production has recovered, while the growth of external supply has slowed down[16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The pattern of coking coal inventory accumulation continues, but the amplitude has slowed down, and the inventory is still concentrated in the mid - stream[21]. - Coke Inventory: Coke has turned to de - stocking, and the number of available days is at a neutral level[28]. - Direct Demand for Double Coking since New Year's Day: The negative growth of direct demand for double coking has narrowed[34]. 3.4 Coking Coal Inventory in January - Import Profit Compression: The import profit of coking coal has been compressed, and the future arrival of overseas coking coal is expected to decrease[43]. - Expected Increase in Hot Metal: Hot metal production is expected to continue to rise[55]. - Steel Demand: Steel demand is hard to be optimistic, but it should not be overly pessimistic. If domestic mine production decreases seasonally and imports decline, coking coal inventory accumulation may slow down[57][61].