钢材：回顾与展望

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the steel market followed the positive macro - sentiment, with an increase in hot metal production, a recovery in furnace material prices, and a general price increase in the black market. However, as the sentiment weakened, the near - term inventory started to accumulate, and pressure increased. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater pressure on hot - rolled coils in the near term than on rebar. The overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [7][16]. Summary by Directory 01 Fundamental Changes - After the holiday, following positive macro - sentiment, hot metal rebounded, furnace material prices recovered, the black market as a whole made up for lost ground, steel prices rose with costs, and the basis quickly turned negative, with intraday premiums reaching the warehouse - receipt registration spread. There is an expected increase in rebar warehouse - receipt volume. As sentiment weakened, near - term inventory accumulation started, increasing pressure [7]. - Rebar factory inventories showed a cumulative trend. After - holiday demand fell short of expectations, the apparent demand for wire rods declined rapidly, with a 17% month - on - month decrease. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand were weak. In January, the procurement forecast of construction enterprises surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 18% month - on - month, mainly due to fewer newly launched projects, seasonal shutdowns, and slower construction. Currently, infrastructure projects drive most of the demand, accounting for 90% of the Mysteel sample. Hot - rolled coils mainly accumulated in social inventories, and the inventory in Hangzhou remained high. Cold - rolled production increased by 2.8% month - on - month. The winter storage sentiment was dull this year, with an interest rate of 6 - 8 per thousand, and prices below 3000 yuan were considered attractive [10]. - Last week, the price of steel billets increased by 50 yuan, and the production profit of steel billets recovered. However, the price increase of finished products was weak, and the overall price difference with steel billets shrank. The price differences between hot - and cold - rolled products and between round bars and rebar remained stable [13]. 02 Outlook and Valuation - Assuming the supply of rebar and wire rods decreases by 12% and that of plates increases by 4.2% in the first 20 weeks, and the demand decreases by 7% and increases by 2% respectively, the inventory accumulation of rebar and wire rods is limited, while the inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils is relatively large. For rebar and wire rods, assuming the demand decreases by 2%, 7%, and 13% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are - 1.8%, - 6.8%, and - 12.7% to maintain seasonal inventory. For plates, assuming the demand increases by 0.4%, 3.8%, and 4.9% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are 0.8%, 4.2%, and 5.4% to maintain seasonal inventory. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater near - term pressure on hot - rolled coils than on rebar [16]. - Based on the previous assumptions for the five major steel products, the post - Spring Festival inventory peak is 15% higher than last year. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the demand ranges from +2.6% to - 4.3%, and the supply ranges from 2.9% to - 3.8%. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the year - on - year change in hot metal production ranges from 2.4% to - 1.8%. According to the neutral assumption, the hot metal production before the Spring Festival is almost the same as the current level, and the required reduction in production is limited. According to the current maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to recover in the future, but the demand needs to maintain a +2.4% level, which poses demand pressure [19]. - In terms of valuation, the on - disk blast furnace profit is at a relatively low level. The price difference between iron and scrap is 80, and the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap is not yet obvious. The on - disk pricing gives a flat - electricity profit of - 10, a valley - electricity profit of 126, and a blast furnace profit of 78, which is moderately high with limited downward space. The price difference of Turkish hot - rolled coils is 22 US dollars, and the export market is still open. The near - term export volume has declined for three consecutive weeks, which requires continuous attention. Overseas steel prices have been flat after the holiday. After the macro - sentiment fades and hot metal production recovers, the inventory starts to accumulate, and there is near - term real - market pressure. Currently, the production reduction plan is slow, and steel mill profits are under pressure. Steel mills still have a pre - holiday restocking demand for iron ore, and the overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [22].