国投期货综合晨报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have short - term impacts on oil prices, but supply surplus restricts upward space [2] - In the precious metals market, due to employment data and geopolitical chaos, there are opportunities for breakthrough and re - entry [3] - Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly [4][5][6] Summary by Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers drive short - term price recovery, but supply surplus in Q1 2026 limits upward space [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil is directly affected by geopolitical risks, with potential demand increase; low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply increase pressure [22] - Asphalt: Oil price rebound, but asphalt lags behind. Venezuelan oil supply may impact domestic asphalt in February [23] Metals - Precious Metals: US employment data and geopolitical chaos lead to precious metals challenging previous highs, with investment opportunities [3] - Base Metals - Copper: Price oscillates, affected by US employment and geopolitical situation, with a previous option strategy [4] - Aluminum: Short - term funds drive price up, approaching historical high, with high profit for aluminum plants [5] - Zinc: Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with cost support, and price oscillates in a range [8] - Lead: Price oscillates in a low - level range, affected by inventory and cost [9] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Market oscillates, with changes in inventory and price influenced by policies [10] - Tin: Price has support, with attention on inventory changes and high option volatility [11] - Lithium Carbonate: Price oscillates at a high level, with active trading and strong support from the ore end [12] - Industrial Silicon: Price oscillates weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [13] - Polysilicon: Policy affects demand, with supply surplus and price seeking cost support [14] - Iron and Steel - Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil: Price oscillates, with changes in demand, output, and inventory, and profit margin repair for steel mills [15] - Iron Ore: Price rebounds, with changes in supply and demand, and inventory increase [16] - Coke & Coking Coal: Price oscillates strongly, affected by supply - demand and policies [17][18] - Silicon Manganese & Ferrosilicon: Price drops, with different supply - demand situations, and callback buying is recommended [19][20] Chemicals - Urea: Price oscillates strongly in a range, with expected increase in daily output and approaching spring agricultural demand [24] - Methanol: Import is expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - Pure Benzene: Price oscillates, with expected reduction in far - month production and consideration of positive spread arbitrage [26] - Styrene: Price consolidates, affected by raw material inventory [27] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: Market sentiment is different, with changes in supply, demand, and price [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC price drops, with potential for long - term capacity reduction and cost support; caustic soda oscillates with supply - demand pressure [29] - PX & PTA: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, with cost support from oil price, and different expectations for PX and PTA [30] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply changes, with pressure in the short - term and potential improvement in Q2 [31] - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip: Demand weakens, with price following raw materials and different supply - demand situations [32] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: US and South American soybean production data are expected, with South American weather and US exports to be concerned, and price oscillating weakly [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Market oscillates, affected by Indonesian policy and Malaysian inventory [37] - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: Market oscillates weakly, affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [38] - Soybean No.1: Price shows different trends, with attention on policies and market guidance [39] - Corn: Price oscillates widely, with low inventory and high auction performance [40] - Pig: Price is strong in the short - term, but supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and there may be a secondary bottom in the medium - long term [41] - Egg: Price is strong, with存栏 decline and bullish expectations for H1 2026 contracts [42] - Cotton: Price adjusts, with changes in inventory and demand, and attention on policy implementation [43] - Sugar: Price oscillates, with different production situations in India and Thailand, and expected increase in Guangxi [44] - Apple: Price rebounds, with increased demand for Spring Festival stocking and concerns about inventory removal [45] - Wood: Price is low, with low inventory providing support [46] - Pulp: Price oscillates, with limited upward space due to weak demand [47] Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): Policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] - Stock Index: A - shares are likely to continue to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles dominant [48] - Treasury Bond: Price drops slightly, with focus on the flattening of the yield curve [49]