西南期货早间评论-20260112

1. Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry 2. Core Views - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, but different sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [6] - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is not strong. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, the market sentiment has warmed up, and different futures varieties show various characteristics [8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - Policy and Data: The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan. In December 2025, China's CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell by 1.9% year - on - year [5] - Outlook: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6] 3.2 Equity Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.71%, 0.62%, 2.99%, and 3.07% respectively [8] - Outlook: It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can take long positions at appropriate times [8] 3.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold rose by 0.86%, and the main contract of silver rose by 1.52% [10] - Outlook: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. However, due to the significant increase in precious metals recently and the rise in speculative sentiment, it is expected that market volatility will significantly increase. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [10] 3.4 Steel and Iron Ore 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai were in certain ranges [12] - Outlook: In the medium term, rebar prices may continue to be weak and volatile, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [13] 3.4.2 Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated at high levels. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 815 yuan/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [15] - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is expected to strengthen. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [15] 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [17] - Outlook: Coking coal production has recovered, and coke procurement prices have been lowered. The rebound of futures shows signs of weakness. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18] 3.6 Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell by 0.74% and 1.95% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20] - Outlook: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, ferroalloy production has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20] 3.7 Energy 3.7.1 Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the possible escalation of the Iranian situation [21] - Outlook: The United States is discussing the development strategy of Venezuelan oil, but it has received a cold response. The US President has listened to reports on military strikes against Iran. Crude oil has stabilized around $60 and is expected to rise. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [23] 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [25] - Outlook: The decrease in Singapore fuel oil inventory is positive for prices, while the selling of Asian derivatives on Friday exerts pressure. The rising crude oil prices are expected to drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [26] 3.8 Chemicals 3.8.1 Polyolefins - Market Performance: In the Hangzhou PP market, some quotations were raised, and in the Yuyao LLDPE market, some prices increased [28] - Outlook: The demand in different sectors of PP products is uneven, and the industry differentiation is more prominent. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [28] 3.8.2 Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber fell by 2.12%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was lowered [30] - Outlook: It is expected to be mainly strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January device maintenance [30] 3.8.3 Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - rubber fell by 0.96% and 1.33% respectively, and the Shanghai spot price was lowered [33] - Outlook: It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state in the short - term [33] 3.8.4 PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell by 0.73%, and the spot price was lowered [35] - Outlook: Although it is currently in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong and volatile trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the demand side [35] 3.8.5 Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by 0.22%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [38] - Outlook: In the short - term, urea prices will remain volatile and strong, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [38] 3.8.6 PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2603 fell by 0.06% and rose by 2.5% at night [40] - Outlook: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, and the PX start - up rate remains unchanged. The rising crude oil prices provide support. However, it is necessary to be cautious. PX may be mainly in a volatile adjustment state [40] 3.8.7 PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2605 fell by 0.23% and rose by 2.28% at night. The spot price in East China was 5,038 yuan/ton [41] - Outlook: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has rebounded to a neutral level, and the inventory remains low. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the long - and medium - term, the supply - demand expectation is good, and the rising crude oil prices provide support [41] 3.8.8 Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [43] - Outlook: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the port inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [43] 3.8.9 Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2603 fell by 0.25% and rose by 1.48% at night [45] - Outlook: The supply of short - fiber is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate. Investors should be cautious and control risks [45] 3.8.10 Polyester Bottle Chips - Market Performance: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [47] - Outlook: The load of bottle chips has slightly decreased recently, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate [47] 3.8.11 Soda Ash - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,225 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [48] - Outlook: The supply remains high, and the inventory reflects that the winter storage rhythm is weaker than in previous years. The current contradiction lies in the game between "strong expectation and weak reality". In the short - term, it is mainly range - bound operation [48] 3.8.12 Glass - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,125 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [49] - Outlook: The glass production capacity is gradually being reduced, but the real - estate new construction and completion areas do not bring significant positive expectations. In the short - term, it is mainly short - selling, but attention should be paid to the short - term driving force brought by real - estate policies [49] 3.8.13 Caustic Soda - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2603 closed at 2,211 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [51] - Outlook: The seasonal characteristics are significant, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue to be weak and stable. However, there is a possibility of price driving due to downstream capacity optimization or supply - side active production cuts. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations and control positions [51] 3.8.14 Pulp - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 5,548 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [54] - Outlook: The fundamental factors are intertwined. The supply expansion news is still being released, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price is oscillating at a high level. In the absence of significant driving factors in the future supply - demand, the futures price may return to the spot price. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the range - bound oscillation [54] 3.9 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.9.1 Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.01% to 143,420 yuan/ton [55] - Outlook: The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for lithium - battery products may stimulate enterprises to increase exports and inventory. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is strong. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. However, the continuous rise may over - draw future expectations, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [55] 3.9.2 Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper (presumably a wrong description here, should be related to the respective metals) fluctuated slightly and closed at the 60 - day level [57][58][59][60] - Outlook: The report does not provide specific outlooks for these four metals 3.9.3 Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose by 3.15% to 359,980 yuan/ton [61] - Outlook: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply is generally tight, and the demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support at the bottom, but there may be a short - term correction [61] 3.9.4 Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose by 2.78% to 140,280 yuan/ton [63] - Outlook: Due to the anti - globalization trend and geopolitical conflicts, the cost of nickel is expected to rise, but the real - world consumption is still not optimistic, and the primary nickel is still in an oversupply situation. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [63] 3.10 Agricultural Products 3.10.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell by 0.64% to 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose by 0.33% to 7,994 yuan/ton [64] - Outlook: The demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved. There is a certain supply pressure. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options in the low - level range for soybean oil [64] 3.10.2 Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil fell on Friday due to profit - taking but recorded a weekly increase [66] - Outlook: It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after a correction [67] 3.10.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed fell on Friday but recorded a strong weekly increase [68] - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the changes in the import trade policy of Canadian rapeseed products. If the import of Canadian rapeseed products increases, investors can consider opportunities to expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in the far - month contracts [68] 3.10.4 Cotton - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton significantly reduced positions and fell for three consecutive days [70] - Outlook: In the long - and medium - term, cotton prices are expected to be strong, but the short - term increase has been too large, and the domestic valuation is relatively high compared with the international market. It is recommended to buy on dips in batches after a correction [70] 3.10.5 Sugar - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar was weakly volatile, and the international raw sugar slightly fell after a bottom - hunting rebound [74] - Outlook: Abroad, the focus is on the production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially India's production. Domestically, there is pressure from both domestic new sugar and imported sugar. After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited [75] 3.10.6 Apples - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures were strongly volatile [78] - Outlook: The inventory this year is at a low level in recent years, and the apple production and quality have declined. It is expected that the prices will be strong in the long - and medium - term [78] 3.10.7 Pigs - Market Performance: The national average price of live pigs was 12.70 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan from the previous day. The main contract fell by 0.08% to 11,770 yuan/ton [82] - Outlook: In the first quarter, the supply may still face great pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for changes in the market capital structure [82] 3.10.8 Eggs - Market Performance: The average prices in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The main contract rose by 0.46% to 3,040 yuan/500 kg [84] - Outlook: In January, the egg supply may remain at a relatively high