碳酸锂周报：消费淡季呈现累库，价格上方承压-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is affected by factors such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, and the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai receiving notices of mining right transfer review. In December, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 3% month - on - month, and in November, the imported lithium concentrate was 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%. The total import of lithium carbonate in November was about 22,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply [5][7]. - The downstream demand is strong, and the de - stocking trend continues. The terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production schedule in January is expected to decline slightly, and the cathode production schedule in November increased by 2% month - on - month. With the continuous risk of mining certificates in Yichun, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, and the cost center moves up. The expectation of the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo within the year has failed. After the joint production cut of cathode material factories, the downstream production schedule is expected to decline, resulting in a small inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. When downstream purchases lithium carbonate, the inventory of traders accumulates, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoint Supply - side situation - Production: According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 50 tons week - on - week to 24,400 tons, and the December production increased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices of mining right transfer review, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the space for further cost reduction of Australian mines is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have basically reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25 [5]. - Import: In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia in November increased by 44% month - on - month, the import from Zimbabwe was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%, and the import from Nigeria was 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. In November, 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%, and the import from Chile was 10,800 tons, accounting for 49% [5]. - Cost: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate by purchasing external lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side situation - Production schedule: The overall production schedule in January decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large - scale cell factories in November increased by 2% month - on - month [6]. - Production, export, and sales of batteries: In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.1% and a year - on - year increase of 46.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 52.2%. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax on the policy side are also expected to continuously support the rapid growth of the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market in China [6]. - Inventory: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight accumulation state. The factory inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 849 tons, the market inventory decreased by 3,740 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 5,079 tons [6]. Key Data Tracking - Multiple data charts are provided, including the spot tax - included average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary materials type 8 NCA. The data sources are Baichuan Yingfu, IFIND, and the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Service Center of Yangtze River Futures [9][10][12][14][18][21][24][25][27][31][33][38][39][41][43]