预期好转，提振甲醇期货或能偏强运行

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Last week, the methanol futures showed a strong performance, and the methanol still presented a regional differentiation trend. Recently, due to concerns about potential US military actions against Iran and the clear expectation of reduced imports from Iran, the port methanol market has strengthened, which also boosts the methanol futures. In the context of positive expectations, the methanol futures may continue to be strong, but the improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and the rebound height of the methanol futures needs further observation [5][7][8][29] Group 3 Methanol trend review - Last week, influenced by positive expectations and the strength of port methanol, the methanol futures showed a strong performance. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price reached 2,274 yuan/ton, a 2.66% increase from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol inventory continued to accumulate, but the market strengthened. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,210 to 2,310 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,190 to 2,280 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price first rose and then fell, with the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1,843 to 1,858 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2,123 to 2,140 yuan/ton [5][11] Methanol fundamental analysis - Supply: Last week, the domestic methanol production continued to decline. The effective production capacity of Chinese methanol plants was 106.275 million tons/year, the production was 2,042,365 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a 1.12% increase due to the decrease in the production capacity base [14] - Downstream demand: As of January 8, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows. For olefins, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Yangtze River Delta was 66.86%, a 2.19 percentage point decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 2.96%, a 17.78% decrease. The overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 75.87%. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 34.07% [15][17] - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 447,700 tons, a 5.94% increase from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,500 tons, a 14.16% increase. As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.5372 million tons, a 2.73% increase. The inventory in Zhejiang region increased significantly, while the South China port inventory decreased slightly [18][21] - Profit: Last week, the raw material coal price fluctuated slightly higher, and the natural gas price slightly decreased. The methanol market generally increased slightly. The profits of the main methanol production processes all improved slightly. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was - 213.60 yuan/ton, a 10.19% increase; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 166.60 yuan/ton, a 4.91% increase, etc. [24] Methanol trend outlook - Supply: This week, there may be more maintenance than restart of domestic methanol plants. It is expected that the Chinese methanol production will be about 2.0518 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.84%, a slight increase from last week [27] - Downstream demand: For olefins, there is an expectation of reduced load in the MTO industry. For dimethyl ether, the overall capacity utilization rate may increase. For glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, the capacity utilization rate may increase. For chlorides, the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 451,100 tons, continuing the increasing trend. The port inventory may decrease, depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and the change in提货 volume [28] - Overall: The improvement in methanol expectations boosts the strong performance of methanol futures, but the improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and the rebound height of the methanol futures needs further observation [29] Operation strategy - Considering the positive expectations, the methanol futures may be strong, and a bull spread strategy can be considered [9]