Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The log spot price has stabilized due to increased arrivals at ports and inventory accumulation. In the short - term, prices are likely to remain stable under the game of supply and demand, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of the expected increase in the FOB price in February and the recovery rhythm of terminal construction demand [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: On the supply side, New Zealand's shipments decreased due to the Christmas holiday, but the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 479,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17%. The arrivals in Shandong were concentrated while those in Jiangsu were tight. The January FOB price dropped to $110 per JAS cubic meter, and traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling led to good FOB transactions. On the demand side, the demand for construction timber was flat, but the shipments of laminated wood in Shandong were popular. The daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. The capital availability rate of construction sites declined, affecting procurement. The total inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%, with the inventory of radiata pine and North American timber increasing and that of spruce/fir decreasing, and the inventory in core provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu increasing [7] - Logic Analysis: The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] - Strategy: For unilateral trading, with both supply and demand being weak and cost support, aggressive investors can go long near the previous low. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Core Logic Analysis - The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] Weekly Data Tracking - Log Supply: In December 2025, about 55 ships departed from New Zealand ports, a month - on - month increase of 6 ships, with a total shipment of about 2.04 million cubic meters, an 8% increase from November. 42 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.521 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 5% increase from November. From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships (350,000 cubic meters) departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship (10,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships (300,000 cubic meters) were directly bound for China, an increase of 2 ships (80,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 8% increase from the previous week, and the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, a 17% increase from the previous week [19] - Log Inventory: As of January 2, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.28 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.56%. The North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 42.86%. The spruce/fir inventory was 140,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 6.67%. The total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period, and the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 508,756 cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22] - Log Demand: As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3.58%, and the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 11.07%. As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points [26] - Log Prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.33%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 730 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,160 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year increase of 10.48% [33] - Downstream Timber Prices: The mainstream transaction price of 30004090 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,250 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,240 yuan per cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 30004090 spruce/white pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,800 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [36] - Import Log Costs: As of January 5, 2026, the January FOB (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42]
到港增量、库存累库，原木现货企稳
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-12 06:06