合成橡胶投资周报：工业品上涨情绪支撑，合成胶利多逻辑未改-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bullish" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward sentiment in industrial products supports the bullish logic for synthetic rubber. The narrowing spread between synthetic and natural rubber has a driving force for further regression. Against the backdrop of the elimination of backward petrochemical production capacity and overseas cracking units, coupled with strong cost - side support and inventory reduction in the current fundamentals, there is still upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The factors driving the price increase included expectations of reduced production profits due to butadiene inventory reduction in January, strengthened cost support from butadiene export negotiations, and positive macro - level expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January [4] 3.2 Price Comparison - In 2026, the ex - factory prices of domestic cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 3.48% week - on - week. Market prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [7] - The prices of butadiene (BD) also increased. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli increased by 4.73% week - on - week, and the market price in Hangzhou increased by 6.32% week - on - week [8] 3.3 Correlation Analysis - The price trends of synthetic rubber and related natural rubber varieties show different degrees of correlation. For example, BR has a high positive correlation with RU, NR, and butadiene, and the correlation coefficients vary in different time periods (1 - month and 3 - month) [9] 3.4 Device Status - In 2026, some butadiene production enterprises had maintenance or shutdown plans, such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang Petrochemical, etc. Some cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises also had equipment outages or future maintenance plans, like Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical [10][11] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - For butadiene, the current devices are in a shutdown state, and the output is expected to continue to decline. For cis - butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, other devices are operating at a high level, and the supply remains sufficient [3] Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, the market turnover has become increasingly sluggish in the early part of the month, with weakening terminal demand and reduced replenishment willingness. In the all - steel tire market, the inventory of some merchants increased significantly last month, and the ability to continuously purchase has weakened. Although some factories have announced profit - sharing policies in January, most are focused on digesting existing inventory, and some replenishment demand is postponed [3] 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 7.61% week - on - week, and the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 1.08% week - on - week. Overall, both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are in a de - stocking cycle [3] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Bullish. In the medium - to - long term, there is upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position, but be wary of the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]