Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is basically balanced but shows an overall pattern of oversupply, with main supply growth points in China and Brazil, a decline in Australian output, and a significant reduction in Chinese consumption. The inventory - to - consumption ratio remains the same as last year [1]. - The U.S. cotton has had two consecutive years of bumper harvests, leading to a loose supply - demand situation in the international cotton market and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. Vietnam has become the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year, and U.S. cotton faces great export pressure due to the deteriorating global trade environment [1]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton market continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern. Benefiting from the release of Xinjiang's production capacity, the surplus cotton inventory in the market has been digested, but downstream orders have not improved substantially, squeezing textile enterprises' profits. The situation is unlikely to change in 2026, and attention should be paid to policies to boost consumption and their impact on commodity prices [1]. - China's cotton imports have shifted to Brazil and Australia. Brazil's cotton output has been hitting new highs, while Australia's output has been on a declining trend in recent years. The similar weather conditions in the two southern - hemisphere countries have increased supply uncertainty [2]. - In 2026, as the gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans widens and China's cotton target - price subsidy policy is to be adjusted, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term. The price upward drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [3]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review - In 2025, the Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bottom - oscillating trend. From January to April, the price oscillated downward due to factors such as the market's over - heating correction, low inventory levels, consumption off - season, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions [10]. - From May to August, the cotton price rose as Sino - U.S. trade talks led to a reduction in tariff rates, and China's textile and clothing exports increased, along with a decline in industrial and commercial inventories [10]. - From September to October, the cotton price peaked and declined because of issues such as high delivery premiums and a high - opening - low - going new - cotton purchase price [11]. - From November to December, the cotton price rose again as Sino - U.S. trade negotiations made progress, tariffs were cancelled or postponed, and there were positive expectations for supply and demand [11]. 2. Supply - Demand Structure Analysis (1) Global - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, and the supply - demand structure remained basically balanced. The main supply growth points were in China and Brazil, with a decline in Australian output, and the main consumption growth point was in Pakistan, but it could not offset the significant reduction in Chinese consumption [14]. - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, the global cotton output in 2025/26 was 26.1142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.43%. Consumption was 25.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The ending inventory was 16.1615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio remained the same as last year [14]. - The gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans has been widening, and the substitution effect may continue, so global cotton output may be adjusted in the future [15]. (2) U.S. Cotton - In the 2025/26 season, U.S. cotton had a bumper harvest for the second consecutive year, leading to a loose international supply - demand situation and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. The output was 3.1109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the export was estimated to be 2.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [21]. - Affected by Sino - U.S. trade tensions, China's imports of U.S. cotton continued to decline. Vietnam became the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year. As of December 11, 2025, China had signed contracts for 60,000 tons of U.S. cotton, less than half of last year, while Vietnam had signed contracts for 430,000 tons [23]. - As of December 12, the U.S. cotton export and signing progress was slightly slower than last year, but the shipment - to - signing ratio increased by 9.46 percentage points to 41.16% [23]. (3) Brazil and Australia - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's cotton output was expected to be 4.0875 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.29%, with an export of 3.161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Australia's output was expected to be 981,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.64%, and the export was expected to be 1.1118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [28]. - Brazil's increasing output has increased supply liquidity and pressured import prices. Australia's output has been fluctuating and declining in recent years. The similar weather in the two southern - hemisphere countries has increased supply uncertainty [28]. (4) China - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton output was expected to reach a record high of 7.303 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, consumption was expected to be 8.393 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28%, and imports were expected to be 1.1772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [32]. - China's state reserve has not carried out cotton rotation this year, and the domestic cotton inventory in the state reserve is estimated to be only 201,000 tons, at a relatively low level [32]. - China's cotton textile industry's PMI index has been hovering around the boom - bust line, indicating poor industry prosperity. The textile enterprises' operating rate is low, and the industry's profit is poor throughout the year [32]. - China's cotton market continued to have a loose supply - demand pattern in 2025/26. Although Xinjiang's production capacity has digested the surplus inventory, downstream orders have not improved, and it is difficult to change the situation in 2026 [33]. 3. Industry Operation Status (1) Seed - Cotton Cost, Production Enthusiasm, and Imports - In 2025, the cost of seed - cotton converted to lint was around 14,800 yuan/ton. China's cotton imports were only 900,000 tons this year, mainly from Brazil and Australia, and the proportion of U.S. cotton imports further decreased [37]. - Due to poor industry profits, the production enthusiasm of yarn and fabric enterprises was low, but the new production capacity in Xinjiang prevented a sharp increase in inventory [37]. - The current situation of low industry profits, high inventory, and low operating rates may continue [38]. (2) Domestic Demand and Export Trade - In 2025, domestic consumption was strong, with the cumulative retail sales of clothing and textile products increasing year - on - year, but export trade deteriorated, with the export of clothing and textile products decreasing year - on - year [41]. - In 2026, the international trade environment is more complex. Although the Sino - U.S. agreement to cancel a 24% tariff provides a short - term calm period, textile and clothing exports still face many difficulties [41]. 4. Future Outlook - In recent years, global cotton supply - demand has been stable but lackluster. In 2025, the supply - demand was basically balanced, and cotton prices were at a low level. In 2026, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term, and the market's long - short game may intensify from January to April [45]. - China's cotton textile industry has been shifting to Xinjiang, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang in 2026 will help stabilize cotton demand. Although the export of textile and clothing products will still face pressure, the short - term tariff suspension between China and the U.S. is conducive to the recovery of foreign trade [45]. - Overall, cotton prices are at a historical low, increasing price volatility. In 2026, the upward price drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [46].
供给端预期调整，棉价上行动能或强于压力
Guo Du Qi Huo·2026-01-12 06:23