2026年橡胶期货年度报告：供给端增量已有限，关注宏观政策驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the global natural rubber production was 14.892 million tons, while the consumption was 15.565 million tons. The supply fell short of demand, and the inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive year since 2021, indicating significant de - stocking [1][15]. - The structural rubber production decline in traditional rubber - producing countries is likely irreversible. New plantings in traditional rubber - producing countries (except Indonesia) have limited growth, and these countries face issues such as industrial transformation, rubber tree aging. Emerging rubber - producing countries can hardly make up for the supply reduction of traditional ones. The low - inventory pattern is conducive to supporting the bottom price of natural rubber [1][15]. - China's natural rubber production has increased for two consecutive years, and the consumption remains at a high level. The high imports have led to high inventory throughout the year. The state reserve policy has shifted from net selling to mainly purchasing, providing phased support for rubber prices [2][25]. - In the future, the global natural rubber supply - demand pattern may gradually change from surplus to shortage. In the domestic market, the tire industry's stable growth in production and the new stage of the rubber collection and release policy will contribute to the upward movement of the bottom price of natural rubber [2][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures showed a wide - range oscillation, with the oscillation range between 13,850 - 18,230 yuan/ton. The price dropped from January to April due to the escalation of the tariff war. It rebounded from May to August as the main production areas started tapping, and the macro - environment improved. From September to October, the price declined due to the over - expected state reserve selling and weak supply - demand. From November to December, the price rose as the market expected a supply reduction in the next year [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Structure Analysis 3.2.1 Limited Global New Supply and the Fifth - Year De - stocking of ANRPC - In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to be 14.892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The consumption was expected to be 15.565 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.83%. The supply was short of demand, and the inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive year [15]. - Since 2012, the new planting area in major producing countries has been decreasing year by year, and the total global planting area has stopped growing since 2015. In the future, the global natural rubber is expected to continue the de - stocking trend [15]. 3.2.2 Structural Output Decline in Indonesia and Malaysia, and Irreversible Output Reduction in Major Producing Countries - Traditional rubber - producing countries, such as Malaysia, have undergone industrial transformation, and most of them face the problem of rubber tree aging. For example, nearly 60% of rubber trees in Indonesia and 40% in Malaysia are old [20]. - In 2025, from January to November, Thailand's natural rubber production increased by 2.81% year - on - year, Malaysia's decreased by 9.91%, Indonesia's decreased by 17.51%, and Vietnam's increased by 6.59% [20]. 3.2.3 Growth in China's Natural Rubber Output, High - Level Consumption, and High Inventory without an Inflection Point - From January to November 2025, China's natural rubber output was 881,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The actual consumption was 620,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.46% [25]. - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative natural rubber imports reached 757,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The high - output and high - import pattern led to high inventory throughout the year [25]. - In 2025, the state reserve's annual purchase volume was higher than the selling volume, marking the end of the "net selling cycle" and the beginning of the "mainly purchasing" stage [26]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Sustained Replacement Demand and Significant Growth in Supporting Demand - From March to November 2025, the total highway freight volume reached 3.3726 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.29%. The logistics industry index was above the 50% boom - bust line, effectively supporting the tire replacement demand [32]. - From March to November 2025, China's automobile sales were 26.386 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.24%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative heavy - truck sales were 1.0408 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.32% [32]. 3.3.2 Tire Exports under Pressure, with Semi - steel Tires Performing Worse than All - steel Tires - From March to November 2025, China's rubber tire production was 914.774 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. From January to November 2025, the rubber tire exports were 643.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.71% [39]. - The all - steel tire industry for commercial vehicles performed better than the semi - steel tire industry for passenger vehicles in terms of capacity utilization, inventory, and exports [39]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2025, the global natural rubber production and sales maintained steady growth, with the supply falling short of demand and the inventory continuing to decrease. In the future, the global supply - demand pattern may change from surplus to shortage [48]. - In the domestic market, the stable growth of the tire industry and the new stage of the rubber collection and release policy will help the bottom price of natural rubber move upward [49].