贵金属数据日报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to be strong, but the fluctuation may be intense due to factors such as low probability of Fed rate - cut in January and risk - control measures from exchanges. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand from central banks, institutions, and residents will drive the long - term upward shift of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - On January 9, 2026, London gold spot was at $4473.61/oz, London silver spot at $77.24/oz, COMEX gold at $4483.10/oz, and COMEX silver at $77.00/oz. The price of AU2602 was 1006.48 yuan/g, and AG2602 was 18757 yuan/kg. The price of AU (T + D) was 1003.45 yuan/g, and AG (T + D) was 18764 yuan/kg. Compared with January 8, the price increases were 0.9%, 1.0%, 0.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The price difference and ratio data showed various changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 3.03 yuan/g on January 9, with a 23.7% change compared to January 8 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 9, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16308.47495 tons. The COMEX gold non - commercial long - position was 274435 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 46803 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long - position was 47384 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 18113 contracts. Compared with January 8, there were different percentage changes in these positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 9, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, with no change from January 8. SHFE silver inventory was 620262 kg, a 2.73% decrease. COMEX gold inventory was 36311918 troy ounces, a 0.21% decrease, and COMEX silver inventory was 439740503 troy ounces, a 0.62% decrease [3]. 3.4 Market Review - On January 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.68% to 1006.48 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.9% to 18731 yuan/kg [3]. 3.5 Factor Analysis - The lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in December, along with downward revisions of October and November data, indicate a cooling US labor market. The intensifying protests in Iran, Trump's radical remarks on Greenland, and strong safe - haven demand have pushed up precious metal prices. The short - term prices are expected to be strong, but the Fed's low probability of rate - cut in January and exchange risk - control measures may lead to high volatility. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains [4].