宏观金融数据日报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index broke through strongly and with heavy volume last week. With ample market capital, a new upward space has opened, and the bullish trend continues. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to maintain an upward pattern. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026. It is recommended that investors still focus on seizing opportunities to build long positions [9] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - Interest Rate Changes: DRO01 closed at 1.27% with a 0.32bp increase; DR007 at 1.47% with a - 0.13bp change; GC001 at 1.34% with a 22.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.53% with a 5.00bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.60% with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35% with a 1.55bp increase; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a 0.43bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.88% with a - 0.17bp change; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.18% with a - 1.00bp change [4] - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operation rate of 1.40%. There were 5288 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a single - day net withdrawal of 5002 billion yuan. This week, there are 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the central bank's open market, 4823 billion yuan, 3125 billion yuan, and 5288 billion yuan due from Monday to Wednesday respectively. There will also be 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases due on Thursday and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits due on Friday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - Price and Volume Changes: The closing prices and changes of major stock index futures are as follows: CSI 300 closed at 4759 with a 0.45% increase; IF current month at 4765 with a 0.6% increase; SSE 50 at 3134 with a 0.39% increase; IH current month at 3133 with a 0.4% increase; CSI 500 at 8057 with a 2.05% increase; IC current month at 8088 with a 2.5% increase; CSI 1000 at 8129 with a 1.98% increase; IM current month at 8160 with a 2.6% increase. In terms of volume, IF volume was 148342 with a 23.9% increase, IF open interest was 299215 with a 3.6% increase; IH volume was 53705 with a 19.8% increase, IH open interest was 92820 with a 1.8% increase; IC volume was 188896 with a 27.8% increase, IC open interest was 318610 with an 8.3% increase; IM volume was 247789 with a 26.4% increase, IM open interest was 393398 with a 5.1% increase [7] - Market Review and Outlook: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 16 consecutive positive days and reached 4100 points, refreshing a more than 10 - year high. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan. After the holiday, the market trading volume significantly expanded, and sufficient funds boosted the strong rise of stock indexes. The reasons include low inter - bank capital interest rates, continuous inflow of incremental funds such as leveraged funds, and continuous expansion of market trading volume [8][9] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are as follows: IF basis rates are - 9.02% for the current - month contract, 1.10% for the next - month contract, 1.71% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.75% for the next - quarter contract; IH basis rates are 3.08% for the current - month contract, 0.44% for the next - month contract, - 0.08% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.81% for the next - quarter contract; IC basis rates are - 28.55% for the current - month contract, - 0.17% for the next - month contract, 1.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 5.44% for the next - quarter contract; IM basis rates are - 27.85% for the current - month contract, 3.41% for the next - month contract, 5.33% for the current - quarter contract, and 8.61% for the next - quarter contract [10]