聚酯数据日报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PTA market is affected by the approaching off - season of demand, with falling prices and weakening spot basis. The MEG market is under pressure from increased supply and falling coal prices, but may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price rose from 416.2 yuan/barrel on January 8, 2026, to 432.7 yuan/barrel on January 9, 2026, an increase of 16.5 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA: PTA - SC spread decreased by 97.91 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0571. PTA主力期价 rose 22 yuan/ton, while the spot price fell 35 yuan/ton. Spot and盘面加工费 decreased by 42.2 yuan/ton and 5.2 yuan/ton respectively. The主力基差 decreased by 7, and the number of PTA仓单 decreased by 534 [2] - PX: CFR China PX price rose from 886 to 892, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 13 [2] - MEG: MEG主力期价 rose 20 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased by 3.8 yuan/ton, MEG内盘 price fell 20 yuan/ton, and the主力基差 remained unchanged [2] - Industry Chain开工情况: PX and PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 87.87% and 77.40% respectively. MEG开工率 decreased by 0.16% to 60.71%, and聚酯负荷 decreased by 0.08% to 88.12% [2] - Polyester Products: In the polyester filament market, prices of POY, FDY decreased, while DTY remained unchanged. Cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY increased. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 4%. In the polyester staple fiber market, the price of 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased slightly, the cash flow increased by 32, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 6%. In the polyester chip market, the price of semi - light chip decreased, the cash flow increased, and the chip sales rate increased by 17% [2] Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance with decreasing load. Additional maintenance information includes Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in December. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their device loads [2] Trading Recommendations - PTA: The PX market is at a critical node where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester demand weakens seasonally, forming a negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts [2] - MEG: Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, and the inventory at East China ports remains at 750,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the MEG price lacks effective support. However, it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]