供应扰动不断，锡价弹性进一步释放

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price is expected to show an oscillating and upward - trending pattern. The short - term price fluctuation range is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and if the price breaks through, the upper limit of the range may further rise to about 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investors continue to hold long positions or allocate long positions on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 12, 2026, the tin price soared, breaking through 315,000 yuan/ton during intraday trading and reaching a new high for the year. The main reason is the continuous supply disruptions and the further release of price elasticity under high market sentiment [3] - In Myanmar, due to the slower - than - expected explosive approval process, there will be a shortage of production raw materials and difficulties in mine production at the beginning of 2026. It is expected that the average monthly output in Myanmar at the beginning of the year will only be maintained at about 1,000 metal tons [3] - In Indonesia, due to the influence of RKAB approval, the supply in the first quarter may still be restricted. As of January 7, the trading volume of tin in the two major exchanges in Indonesia was 0 [3] - In the African region, political instability and backward infrastructure have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the tight situation of domestic tin ore supply remains unresolved, restricting the output of smelting plants. The processing fee for tin concentrate also remains at a low level. As of January 9, the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [4] - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative refined tin production was 18,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The single - month output in December was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [4] - Under the situation of tight supply, the tin inventory has decreased recently. As of January 9, the domestic tin ingot social inventory was 478 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,042 tons. As of the end of December, the domestic tin ingot enterprise inventory was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,070 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tin ore supply continues to tighten, resulting in a short - term shortage of raw materials for smelters, low processing fees for tin concentrates, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products [5] - In terms of demand, the United States is still in an interest - rate - cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal end is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]