液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：地缘风险再度升级，关注取暖需求释放-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [5] Core Viewpoints - The prices of January CP propane and butane have strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remains stagnant. Combustion demand is basically stable but weaker year - on - year, and although the chemical demand maintains high - level operation, the profits are deeply in the red, so it's hard to say that the demand is improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations on the PG price [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - During this period, the main contract of LPG futures trended upward, with a fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,250 yuan/ton. The positive news of the high - opening of January CP still exists, and some downstream users replenished their stocks after the New Year's Day. Most of the domestic markets rose, and the price in South China reached over 5,000 yuan. The market sentiment was strong, and the LPG futures outperformed crude oil under the support of domestic and international spot prices. However, the demand side did not improve. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 268 yuan/ton, in South China was 656 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 201 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. As of Thursday this week, the total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,248 lots [6] Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 51.81 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 21.68 million tons (a decrease of 3.26%), industrial gas was 18.95 million tons (an increase of 1.12%), and ether - after C4 was 16.73 million tons (an increase of 1.33%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 53 million tons (a decrease of 7.04%). During the week, some enterprises in East China and Northeast China used resources internally, and the external sales volume of an individual enterprise in Shaanxi increased, resulting in a decrease in the weekly commercial volume [5] Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the combustion demand for LPG is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH plants are operating at a high load, but the plant profit losses are intensifying. The propane procurement demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there have been reports of plant production cuts recently, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually, leading to a decline in propane chemical demand. MTBE profits are in the red, the overseas olefin blending demand has slowed down, the domestic export window has closed, most orders have been executed, and it is difficult for refineries to maintain high - level operation, which in turn restricts the price trend of civil gas [5] Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 213.20 million tons (a decrease of 0.41%), and the port inventory was 249.60 million tons. On the refinery side, the high import cost continued to provide positive support. Coupled with downstream replenishment after the festival, the market trading atmosphere was good, and each manufacturer's shipments were stable, resulting in a decrease in inventory. On the port side, the number of arriving ships this period was limited. Except for the increase in arriving ships in South China and Fujian, the number in other areas decreased, and the import resource supply was insufficient. The terminals mainly focused on inventory digestion [5] Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 246 yuan/ton in East China, 619 yuan/ton in South China, and 179 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,218 lots, an increase of 30 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was Shandong [5][9] Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were [not clearly stated]. The profits of PDH to propylene were - 832 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 70 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 330 yuan/ton [5] Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.33 (an increase of 2.04%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 85 yuan/ton (a decrease of 28.57%). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil price showed a downward trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5] Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 was the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a nationwide network control, which is related to ongoing protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The events of the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers have fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [5] Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive spreads, PG3 - 4 reverse spreads, long SC and short PG, and long PP and short PG [5]