黑色金属2026年度报告：成本定价，宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is currently in the depression phase of the long - term (Kondratieff) cycle, the downward bottom - seeking phase of the medium - term (Juglar, real estate) cycle, and the weak recovery and transition phase of the short - term (inventory) cycle. The expected "active restocking cycle" led by demand recovery has not occurred, and the cycle switch has been further postponed [2][29]. - The steel export needs a mindset upgrade from "tonnage" to "grade". When "Chinese steel" becomes a synonym for certain quality, innovation, or sustainability in the global market, its export will truly enter the deep - blue sea [2][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - Iron Ore: In 2025, the iron ore market had a complex trend contrary to the pessimistic predictions at the beginning of the year. The price showed a narrow - range fluctuation, with a "U - shaped" annual price movement. The main contract fluctuated in the range of [689.0, 838.5], with an amplitude of 149.5 points (19.32%), and the year - end price was basically the same as the beginning of the year. The supply - demand structure was moving towards a trend of loosening. The price first rose and then fell in the first half of the year, and rebounded and then fluctuated in the second half [1][11][13]. - Steel: Affected by weak terminal demand, steel prices continued to decline. Taking rebar as an example, the main contract fluctuated in the range of [2928, 3382], with an amplitude of 454 points (14.38%) and a decline of 184 points (- 5.57%). Through self - disciplined production control and exports by steel mills, the industry achieved a difficult "supply - demand re - balance" and a short - term reverse profit repair [1][11][14]. - Terminal Demand: In 2025, the real estate market entered a deep - adjustment period of accelerated decline in investment and sales. Infrastructure investment changed from "counter - cyclical strong hedging" to "precise support", and manufacturing investment showed resilience, becoming a key stabilizer in the overall economic downturn [20][21][23]. - Export Demand: In 2025, steel exports showed a complex picture of "steady growth in total volume, intensified price competition, and accelerated structural optimization". The implicit carbon cost of Chinese steel exports began to appear, and future competitiveness depends on product upgrading, carbon footprint reduction, and transformation to providing overall solutions [26][28] Fundamental Analysis Iron Ore - Supply: In 2025, the global iron ore supply continued to be loose. The global iron ore shipment volume was 16.4 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 516.3 million tons. Major mines such as Vale, BHP, and Rio Tinto had stable or increasing production. The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was at a high level in the past three years [30][31][33]. - Demand: In 2025, the production motivation of steel mills was strong, and the demand for iron ore increased significantly. The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 236.80 million tons, higher than the average in 2024. However, the demand for iron ore decreased in the second half of the year [36][39] - Inventory: In 2025, the iron ore inventory at Chinese 47 ports continued to accumulate, reaching a historical high. By the end of the year, the total inventory was 167.2179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.26 million tons [40] Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil) - Supply: In 2025, steel mills controlled production, and the output decreased. The output of high - value - added products increased significantly, optimizing the supply - side structure [42] - Demand: In 2025, domestic demand for steel was weak, mainly due to the continued drag of real estate and the slowdown of infrastructure growth. Exports were strong, with the cumulative steel exports from January to November reaching 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [51][53] - Inventory: In 2025, the steel mill inventory and social inventory of building materials remained at a low level. The steel mill inventory adopted an "active de - stocking" strategy, and the social inventory was in a "passive de - stocking" state [55][56] Thinking: Upgrade of Steel Export Mindset - From "Product Export" to "Solution and Standard Output": Steel should become a carrier of green and intelligent building solutions, such as China Baowu's green - low - carbon production base in Saudi Arabia [61] - From "Hard - Power Display" to "Soft - Power Communication": Steel needs to tell its own story, communicate its value in sustainable development and innovative design, and add a "brand story" dimension [62] - From "One - Way Output" to "Ecosystem Co - construction and Local Integration": Steel export can be upgraded to co - construct an industrial ecosystem with local partners in overseas markets [63] Market Outlook - Iron Ore: In 2026, the iron ore market will enter a new stage dominated by "supply expansion cycle" and "demand structure differentiation", with global supply - demand becoming looser. The supply will increase significantly, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The price center is expected to move down further, showing a "stable first and then weak" trend. It is recommended to seize the "short - term long and medium - term short" opportunities [3][64] - Steel: In 2026, the steel market will operate under the framework of "demand plateau" and "strong supply constraints". The core contradiction will shift from total over - supply to structural bottom - seeking of demand. The supply - demand weak balance will continue, and the cost - pricing weight will increase. Steel prices are expected to show a "wide - range fluctuation with a slightly lower center" trend. It is recommended to shift from the simple seasonal thinking of "high in the front and low in the back" to the "plate strong and construction weak" structural arbitrage opportunities [4][65]