国贸期货塑料数据周报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "Oscillation" [3][4] 2. Core Views - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. Short - term market trends lack obvious driving forces and are expected to be mainly oscillatory [2][3] - PP has insufficient driving forces, and the rebound is also limited. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.67%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [3] Demand - The average operating rate of LLDPE/LDPE downstream products in China decreased by 0.2% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.1%, while the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.6%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 395,400 tons, a 24,700 - ton increase from the previous period, a 6.66% month - on - month increase. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 475,100 tons, a 3,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 0.77% month - on - month increase and a 19.11% year - on - year increase [3] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 160, with the futures price at a discount [3] Profit - The costs of coal - to - and ethane - to - polyethylene production increased by 59 yuan/ton and 248 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous period. The costs of oil - to - and ethylene - to - polyethylene production decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 129 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of methanol - to - polyethylene production remained the same as last week [3] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [3] Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3] 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - This week, China's polypropylene production was 779,200 tons, a 13,400 - ton decrease (1.69% decline) from last week and a 38,700 - ton increase (5.23% increase) compared to the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.47%, a 1.27% month - on - month decrease [4] Demand - The average operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 52.60%. After New Year's Day, cold weather in northern China affected outdoor construction, leading to a decline in the demand for ton bags, woven bags, and outdoor pipe network construction. The CPP sample enterprise average operating rate decreased by 2.18% from last week [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 743,500 tons, a 9,300 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.26% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 467,700 tons, a 23,000 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease [4] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 254, with the futures price at a premium [4] Profit - This week, the profits of oil - to -, coal - to -, methanol - to -, externally - sourced propylene - to -, and PDH - to - polypropylene production all recovered. The average weekly profit of Chinese polypropylene import samples was - 288.03 yuan/ton, a 55.30 - yuan increase from last week, a 16.11% month - on - month increase [4] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [4] Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - PP futures price increased from 6348 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 2.61% increase; PE futures price increased from 6472 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, a 3.12% increase [5] - PP production decreased by 12.21%; PE production increased by 0.52% [5] - PP spot price increased from 6140 yuan/ton to 6260 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase; LLDPE spot price increased from 6310 yuan/ton to 6410 yuan/ton, a 1.58% increase [5]