专题报告：印尼镍矿政策引发的行情是否扭转？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent strong rebound in the global nickel market is mainly driven by the news that Indonesia's nickel ore quota has been significantly reduced to 2.5 billion tons. However, whether the long - term supply - surplus and weak - demand fundamental pattern of the global nickel market has changed remains to be seen [1]. - Indonesia's industrial policy changes have a significant impact on global nickel prices. The country aims to support nickel prices, ensure national revenue, and guide the industry towards high - value - added development through policies such as RKAB and tax policies [1][8]. - The nickel market's short - term trend is dominated by "policy expectations" and "fund sentiment", while the long - term trend depends on whether the supply - surplus pattern can be reversed [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Driver Analysis: Indonesia's "Visible Hand" and Market Game - Indonesia dominates the global nickel supply chain. In 2024, its nickel ore reserves accounted for about 42% of the global total, and its production accounted for 59%. In 2024, its total nickel metal production capacity reached 3.22 million tons. In 2025, the production of nickel iron, intermediate products, and electrowon nickel in Indonesia is expected to account for 68.5% of the global total [1]. - Indonesia's nickel ore policy has shifted from encouraging investment expansion to active regulation. The core is to support nickel prices and guide the industry towards high - value - added development through RKAB and tax policies [8]. - The significant reduction of the 2026 RKAB quota to 2.5 billion tons is the direct trigger for the price rebound. The Indonesian government's motives include stabilizing prices, strengthening control, and correcting market expectations [10]. - The 2.5 - billion - ton production target for 2026 has taken effect, but its implementation has some flexibility. The final quota may be between 280 million and 320 million tons [11][12][14]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation: Structural Changes under the Cloud of Surplus - The fundamental pattern of the nickel market restricts the upside space of prices. In 2026, Indonesia's low - cost nickel resources will still be the core of growth, and the expansion cycle of the raw material supply side is approaching the end [15]. - Global downstream demand is expected to remain stable in the medium - to - long term, lacking growth highlights. The dominant stainless - steel demand is dragged down by the domestic real - estate market, and the share of ternary batteries is being squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [16]. - The market has a consistent expectation of global nickel resource surplus in the next two years. If Indonesia's nickel ore quota is fully implemented, the supply - demand pattern may reverse [22][26]. 3.3 Strategic Resource Control Struggle: Geopolitical and Key Mineral Resource Industry Chain Reconstruction - Geopolitical events are reshaping the global rare/non - ferrous metal industry chain in three aspects: strategic intention weaponization, supply - chain "camp - building" and "de - Chinaization", and a fundamental change in investment logic [28]. 3.4 Short - term Technical Analysis and Fund Driving - Technically, nickel prices have shown typical strong - breakthrough features, with multiple indicators sending bullish signals. The rebound is strongly driven by funds, and the market sentiment and position structure have changed significantly [32][34]. 3.5 Later Market Judgment and Strategy Suggestions - The short - term market is dominated by "policy expectations" and "fund sentiment". In the long term, it depends on whether the supply - surplus pattern can be reversed [40]. - If the policy expectation is partially falsified, the supply - surplus pattern will regain the upper hand, and nickel prices are likely to return to the downward channel [40]. - If the 2.5 - billion - ton production target is strictly implemented or there are supply risks in other regions, the nickel price center may move up in 2026, but it is unlikely to return to the 2023 average [41]. - Strategy suggestions include paying attention to price - fluctuation risks, global supply - chain risks, and the long - term strategic value of nickel. If the Indonesian policy falls short of expectations, a "sell - high" strategy can be adopted [42].