资金面与基本面共振，股指放量上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by the resonance of capital and fundamental factors. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue the upward trend, supported by continuous policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, and capital market reform policies [3]. - It is recommended that investors opportunistically establish long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Their Impacts: - Economic and corporate profits: Inflation is moderately rising, with CPI and PPI showing positive trends, which is slightly positive for the stock index [3]. - Macro - policies: The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds in 2026 have been issued, with subsidy policies for various consumer goods, which is slightly positive [3]. - Overseas factors: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has significantly decreased, which is slightly negative [3]. - Liquidity: Post - holiday market trading volume has significantly expanded, with sufficient funds promoting a strong rise in the stock index, which is positive [3]. - Investment Viewpoint and Strategy: - Investment view: Opportunistically go long in the short - term and continue to be bullish on the stock index in 2026 [3]. - Trading strategy: Opportunistically go long in the single - side trading, and pay attention to overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 2.79% to 4758.9; the Shanghai 50 rose 3.4% to 3134.3; the CSI 500 rose 7.92% to 8056.7; the CSI 1000 rose 7.03% to 8129.2 [5]. - Futures Performance: The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of the corresponding indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - Industry Performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indexes, the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer industries led the gains, while only the banking industry declined [7]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased to varying degrees [11]. - Spread Performance: The spreads between different indexes and different contract months of futures showed different levels of premium or discount [13]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: This week (January 5 - 9), the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1221.4 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase maturing [24]. - Market Liquidity Indicators: As of January 8, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2612.22 billion yuan, an increase of 79.51 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.4% of the total market trading volume, at the 98.2% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 652.17 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Profits - Macroeconomic Indicators: In December 2025, China's economic indicators showed different trends, such as an increase in GDP, changes in industrial added value, investment, consumption, and employment data [33]. - Industry - Specific Indicators: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction investment showed different development trends [35][37][38][39]. - PMI Indicators: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI both showed positive changes, indicating an improvement in the economic situation [41]. - Corporate Profit Indicators: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different levels of performance [46][47]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - Macro - policy Trends: A series of policies have been introduced, including more active fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and policies to support housing consumption and promote consumption [51][52][53]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In December 2024, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the number of new non - farm payrolls decreased. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [64][66][67]. - Trump Team's Actions: Trump's team has announced a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations [73][75][77][79]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation: As of January 9, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4 times, 12 times, 36.4 times, and 49.4 times respectively, at different quantile levels since October 2014 [82]. - Sector Valuation: Different sectors showed different levels of price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their corresponding historical quantile levels [87].