国贸期货黑色金属周报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, investment views for each sub - sector are as follows: - Steel: Suggests a wait - and - see approach, with a view of treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [5] - Coking Coal and Coke: Recommends a temporary wait - and - see stance [65] - Iron Ore: Advises a wait - and - see approach [114] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the steel, coking coal and coke, and iron ore markets. It points out that the steel market has a complex situation with factors such as supply increase, demand fluctuations, and inventory accumulation. The coking coal and coke market has a neutral situation with potential for downstream restocking. The iron ore market has insufficient upward drivers and faces inventory pressure [5][65][114]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Supply: Iron and steel production shows an upward trend. Iron water production has continued to rise, and scrap steel daily consumption is stable. After January, iron water production is expected to increase, but the increase will not be concentrated. As the Spring Festival approaches, electric furnace operations will decline [5] - Demand: From an industrial data perspective, supply has increased marginally, and the negative pressure on furnace materials has weakened. From a market perception perspective, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, with speculative demand being sporadic. After January, state - owned palletizing funds may return to the market, which is beneficial for the spot liquidity of the trading sector. Among different products, the demand for building materials has weakened significantly, while the demand for cold - rolled products is stable, and the demand for medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly [5] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products has increased weekly, which is related to the stagnant demand during the New Year's Day holiday and the increase in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratio is under pressure, which suppresses price elasticity. The inventory of plate products is slow to decline, and the high - inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils has not been eliminated [5] - Basis/Spread: The basis of hot - rolled coils has declined, while the basis of rebar has remained stable [5] - Profit: The profitability of steel mills is at a medium - low level, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit. The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.66%, with a weekly change of - 0.44% [5] - Valuation: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [5] - Macro and Risk Preference: The market has abundant liquidity, and the rotation of commodity funds has increased volatility [5] - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. At the macro level, there are few new drivers and news, and the market liquidity is relatively abundant. At the industrial level, the increase in iron water production has weakened the negative impact on furnace materials, but the inventory pressure of plate products still suppresses price elasticity. In the future, the increase in iron water production is more certain, and there is still demand for downstream restocking, so the price has support at low levels. Currently, the industrial contradictions are not prominent, and the macro and market risk preferences are slightly positive. The strategy can be to view the market with an oscillatory mindset, and after January, market funds may be more abundant, which is beneficial for cash - and - carry positions [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: The steel market has entered the off - season, with a significant decline in the apparent demand of five major steel products and an increase in production, leading to an increase in steel inventory. The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills has increased, and the profitability rate of steel mills has remained flat [65] - Coking Coal Supply: New - year coal mines have resumed production as scheduled, but the production is still lower than the same - period level. Mongolian coal customs clearance has remained at a high level, and the price of overseas coal has continued to rise, with the internal - external price inversion persisting [65] - Coke Supply: The coking operation has recovered, with an increase in daily coke production and a decrease in coking profit. The previous environmental protection restrictions have ended [65] - Inventory: The downstream procurement sentiment has improved, and the inventory of coking coal and coke has mainly increased in the middle and lower reaches [65] - Basis/Spread: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The cost of wet - quenched and dry - quenched warehouse receipts for the 05 contract is 1675 and 1700 respectively, and the port trade quotation has rebounded. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is over 1200 [65] - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.66% (- 0.44%), and the coking profit is - 45 (- 31) [65] - Summary: The black - metal sector has oscillated upwards. Affected by supply - side news, coking coal and coke prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. The market is currently in the off - season, and the industry data is weak. In the future, attention should be paid to whether downstream restocking will gradually start. It is advisable to buy on dips, but caution is needed due to increased volatility after the recent sharp rise in prices [65] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: The Reuters shipping data has decreased compared to the previous period, with a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil and a rebound in non - mainstream mines. The arrival volume in China has increased, with an increase in arrivals from Australia and a decrease in arrivals from Brazil and non - mainstream sources [114] - Demand: The steel mill's iron water production has increased compared to the previous period, and the steel mill's profitability ratio has continued to fluctuate slightly. According to the maintenance plan, iron water production will gradually increase in the future, and iron ore demand is in a recovery phase in January. The steel production has increased slightly, and the apparent demand for rebar has declined significantly due to the holiday, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has been slightly relieved [114] - Inventory: The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has decreased slightly, but the arrival pressure is large, and the port inventory has increased again, reaching a new high for the year and remaining higher than the same - period level last year [114] - Profit: The steel mill's profit is at a low level [114] - Valuation: The short - term valuation is relatively high [114] - Summary: The iron ore price has declined when it reached the previously mentioned pressure level, which is affected by the resonance decline of the commodity index and market rumors. Currently, the iron ore valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase the long side. Fundamentally, the iron water production has remained stable and increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise under the influence of supply and demand, so the upward pressure on the iron ore price is obvious. It is recommended to wait and see [114]