汇率高频追踪20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's recent focus is on the December non - farm payroll data and the tariff ruling result. The December non - farm payroll data did not cause significant market impact. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.375% in December, exceeding market expectations and well below the previous value of 4.6%, temporarily avoiding the trigger of the Sahm Rule. However, the non - farm employment added in December was 50k, lower than expected and the previous two months' data was revised down by a total of 76k. The labor market demand remains weak. The tariff - related de - dollarization and pre - emptive interest rate cut logic may reverse if the tariff bill is invalidated, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The Federal Reserve's threshold for a January interest rate cut is high, and if the labor market maintains the current "low - speed balance", the short - term monetary easing path may not be supported [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Indicators Exchange Rate - related Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded slightly following the US - Germany interest rate spread. The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recovered. The difference in the US - Europe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has also increased [2][5][7] - The difference in long - term inflation expectations between the US and Europe has further declined, and the US long - term inflation expectation is oscillating at a low level [9][12] - The US short - term interest rate expectation is significantly changing, and the difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is rising [14][16] - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [18] Position and Market Sentiment Indicators - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net short position exposure. The VIX index reflects market volatility [21][20] Bond Spread Indicators - Based on the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits and the US dollar trend show a slight narrowing of the spreads [23] Commodity - related Indicators - The US dollar index and copper price show that the copper price has risen significantly, and the US dollar index and crude oil price show that the crude oil price has rebounded [27]