蛋白数据日报-20260112

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season remain at 290 million bushels, and the US soybean stock-to-use ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report on US soybean yield and exports [7]. - There is no obvious weather-driven impact on South American crops in the short term. Brazil has started harvesting. Given the prediction of a bumper Brazilian soybean crop, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums [8]. - The restart of imported soybean auctions in China brings an expectation of improved supply in the first quarter. Attention should be paid to the transaction situation. Recently, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments in the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China-Canada trade policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data on Spot Basis - On January 9th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 454, down 4; in Tianjin it was 414, down 4; in Rizhao it was 374; in Zhangjiagang it was 364, down 4; in Dongguan it was 354, down 4; in Zhanjiang it was 394, down 4; in Fangcheng it was 404, down 14. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 85, up 12 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 450 in 20/21, 218 in 21/22. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 657, up 9. The futures spread (main contract) of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 448, up 24 [10]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 111.00 cents per bushel, up 3. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9513. The import soybean futures gross profit in Brazil showed different trends in different months [10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report shows the inventory trends of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises from 2018 to 2025 [10][11]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 - The report presents the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills in 2025 [11].