烧碱周报（SH ）：现货走弱，期货震荡偏强-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda market is "oscillating", with short - term trading strategies of no arbitrage and no unilateral trading [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are weakening while futures are oscillating strongly. The short - term market lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, profit, and valuation have different impacts on the market [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 850,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda was 86.8%, a 0.4% week - on - week increase. Next week, the load of some regional devices may be slightly adjusted, and the focus is on the resumption of maintenance of chlor - alkali equipment in Zhejiang [3] - Demand: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.43%, a 3.01% increase from last week. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.09%, a 0.72% decrease from the previous period [3] - Inventory: The inventory situation is bearish. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 - ton and above was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a 1.96% week - on - week increase and a 76.03% year - on - year increase. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 28.22%, a 0.69% week - on - week decrease. The storage capacity ratios in North China, Central China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week, while those in the Northwest, East China, Northeast, and South China regions decreased [3] - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 67, and the futures price is at a premium [3] - Profit: The profit situation is bearish. During the current week, the cost of raw materials and auxiliary materials was stable, the energy cost decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda declined, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was - 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease [3] - Valuation: The valuation situation is bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3] - Macro - policy: There is currently no relevant macro - policy [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the Shandong spot market was weak, while the futures market oscillated strongly. Affected by the anti - involution sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly. On the spot side, the price of liquid chlorine was higher than that in the first half of the year, and it first fell and then rose this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. In the short term, factories have not reduced their loads. The price of 32% caustic soda declined to varying degrees, and the high - concentration caustic soda has not stabilized. Downstream demand is weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market is still poor. The expected price cuts for alumina purchases in Shanxi and Henan have been realized, the supply side has not reduced its load, and the spot supply pressure is high [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices have risen [34] - Upstream Production: The start - up rate remained stable at a high level, and inventory was destocked [36] - Main Producing Area Production: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [39] - Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has declined [40] - Downstream Price: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [43] - Alumina: The alumina supply - demand balance has been restored, and inventory has increased. The port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. Bauxite has flowed into the domestic market, supply is in surplus, and the factory's bauxite inventory has increased significantly [55][61] - Non - aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum start - up remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up has begun to decline. In the printing and dyeing industry, affected by weak demand, large - scale dyeing factories mainly execute orders from regular customers, while small - and medium - scale dyeing factories rely on scattered small orders. The overall market start - up is weak, and the short - term market recovery is weak [62][63] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The start - up rate has rebounded [70]