股指关注市场情绪，债市或震荡运行

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The positive factors in the stock index market are continuously emerging. Policies in the consumption and real estate sectors are working together to support economic recovery. The significant rebound of the construction industry PMI and the stabilization of building material prices indicate the potential for investment to stabilize. The expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in January, along with the strengthening of the exchange rate and the new round of public - fund allocation, will improve market liquidity. However, potential risks and sentiment changes need to be monitored, and the stock index may fluctuate [6]. - The decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium - term. The bond market may fluctuate [11]. - In terms of economic data, in November, the CPI and PPI showed signs of recovery, exports were mixed, industrial production and fixed - asset investment were weak, social retail sales declined, and the growth rate of social financing remained stable [18][21][23] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy - Strategy outlook: Range - bound fluctuations [9]. - Stock index performance review: Last week, all major A - share broad - based indexes closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82% [10]. - Core view: Positive factors are emerging, but potential risks and sentiment changes need attention, and the stock index may fluctuate. IC, IM and other related indexes are relatively strong [10]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [10]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Treasury bond performance review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.10%, 0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [11]. - Core view: The decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium - term, and the bond market may fluctuate [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time in 8 months. The high - tech manufacturing PMI increased significantly, and large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement [18]. CPI - In November, the year - on - year increase of CPI and the month - on - month increase of PPI were the result of seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution". The CPI and PPI are expected to continue to rebound [21]. Exports and Imports - In November, China's exports were 330.35 billion US dollars, imports were 218.67 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 111.68 billion US dollars. The exports of labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products showed different trends. The overall exports in November were not weak, but there may be pressure in December [23][24]. Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value decreased to 4.8%. The reasons may be the suppression of "anti - involution" on key industries and the high base established by strong production after policy implementation last year [25][28]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6%. In November, the fixed - asset investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, with a slight rebound compared to October. Different types and directions of investment showed different trends [31]. Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 1.3%, the weakest since 2023. The reasons include the weakening of durable - goods consumption, the weak "Double Eleven" sales, and the weak performance of post - real - estate cycle consumption [34]. Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [37].