海外宏观策略周报：热经济、冷就业，降息节奏后置-20260112

US Macro - The US economy is characterized by a hot economy and a cold labor market, with signs of further increases in goods prices. The economic momentum is uneven, with the services PMI significantly above the boom-bust line, indicating sustained robust supply and demand, while manufacturing demand weakens. Accelerated inventory drawdowns and a sharp contraction in imports reflect an uncertain environment surrounding tariffs and economic policies. US employment remains subdued but has not lost resilience, with December non-farm payrolls falling short of market expectations while the unemployment rate outperformed expectations, primarily due to a decline in the labor force participation rate and a contraction in part-time employment [1][7][45]. Non-Farm Payroll Data - December's non-farm payrolls underperformed expectations, with 50,000 new jobs added, below the market consensus of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5%. The decline in the unemployment rate was driven by a falling labor force participation rate and reduced part-time employment. The labor participation rate was 62.4%, meeting market expectations [2][10][49]. - Average hourly earnings for non-farm employees grew by 3.76% year-over-year, exceeding the market expectation of 3.6%. However, this is not expected to significantly drive inflation as both average weekly hours and part-time employment declined [2][10][49]. - In the service sector, job gains were primarily driven by Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality, with December seeing Leisure & Hospitality surpass Healthcare & Social Assistance for the first time, adding 47,000 and 38,500 jobs respectively. In the goods-producing sector, construction employment decreased by 11,000 jobs, while manufacturing employment continued to decline [3][10][49]. ISM PMI Data - The US Manufacturing and Services PMIs showed divergence, with the Services PMI expanding sharply to 54.4, indicating a strengthening expansion trend, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, marking the 10th consecutive month below the boom-bust line [4][27]. - The services sector exhibited robust supply and demand, supported by steady consumer spending and a rebound following the end of the government shutdown. The surge in the Services PMI was driven by New Orders, which increased by 5.0 points to 57.9, while New Export Orders reversed contraction, rising by 5.5 points to 54.2. Employment in the services sector returned to expansion for the first time in seven months, rising to 52.0 [4][27][48]. - Manufacturing demand weakened, with inventory drawdowns accelerating and imports contracting sharply, reflecting the uncertain environment of tariffs and economic policies. New Orders saw a slight rebound but remained significantly below the boom-bust line. Inventories were the main factor dragging the PMI lower, contributing to a decline in the overall PMI [5][27][48].