集运指数欧线周报（EC）：预计运价将于1月中下旬见顶-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term European line is expected to be volatile, and the main contract's valuation is under pressure after a pull - back [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the freight rate of the container shipping index for the European line will peak in mid - to late January. Multiple factors, including spot freight rates, political - economic situations, capacity supply, and demand, affect the freight rate trend. The short - term European line shows an oscillating pattern, and there is a risk of further downward movement in freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot freight rates: They have a positive impact. Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January are differentiated. Some shipping companies like Hapag - Lloyd and EMC have different price trends, with some showing price drops and others maintaining high prices but with weakened price - holding power [3]. - Political - economic factors: They are considered neutral. The US Supreme Court's potential ruling on Trump's global tariff policy, the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers in the US - Venezuela situation, and the peak shipping season in the Asia - Europe route with increased capacity deployment are all influencing factors [3]. - Capacity supply: It has a negative impact. The weekly average capacity has been increasing from 2025 to 2026, with 270,000 TEU in November 2025, 300,000 TEU in December 2025, and 313,000 - 321,000 TEU in January 2026 [3]. - Demand: It has a positive impact. At the end of 2025, the container shipping demand for the European line remained strong, with continuous growth in booking volume and high fleet loading rates, supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking and European importers' replenishment needs [3]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes in the spot market, including the European line index, the US - West line index, and the US - East line index, through charts [6]. 3.3 Static Capacity - Order volume: The report shows the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over a long - term period, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet and new - order volumes [11]. - Delivery volume: It presents the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [14][16]. - Demolition volume: It shows the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [15][17]. - Future delivery: It forecasts the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2023 - 2029, including quarterly and annual data [20][22][23]. - Ship prices: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand price of container ships with different loading capacities, and their price indices [27][29][33]. - Existing capacity: It shows the existing capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, proportion, age, and idle/retrofit ratio, including data for different loading capacities and age groups [42][45][46]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Ship schedule: It shows the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) on the Shanghai - European basic port route from week 13 to week 28 [57][59][61]. - Desulfurization tower installation: It presents the situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships, TEU, and average age and duration of installation, as well as the average speed of container ships [67][68][71]. - Idle capacity: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofit ships [75][76][79].