地缘局势反复扰动，国际油价宽幅波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish. OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Although the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains relatively loose, short - term geopolitical situations are the main disruptions, and the risk premium of oil prices may rise [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical situations repeatedly disrupt the international oil market, causing wide - range fluctuations in oil prices. The long - term supply - demand of crude oil is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors are the main drivers of price changes. OPEC+ maintains stable production in the first quarter, and the risk premium of oil prices may increase [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA data show different trends in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production in November [3]. - Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, but overall, the demand shows a certain upward trend [3]. - Inventory (Short - Term): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.832 million barrels in the week ending January 8, while Cushing inventories increased by 730,000 barrels. Product inventories such as gasoline and distillates increased [3]. - Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term): OPEC+ reaffirmed stable production in the first quarter of 2026 and suspended the planned production increase. The U.S. claims to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely [3]. - Geopolitical Situations (Short - Term): Israeli military attacks in the Gaza Strip and Trump's statement about Greenland increase geopolitical risks, which is bullish for oil prices [3]. - Macro - Finance (Short - Term): U.S. non - farm payrolls in December were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate was also lower than expected. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January decreased [3]. - Investment View: Bullish. OPEC+'s suspension of production increase in the first quarter, combined with short - term geopolitical disruptions, may lead to an increase in the risk premium of oil prices [3]. - Trading Strategy: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading are advised to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - Market Review: Geopolitical situations led to wide - range fluctuations in oil prices this week, showing a pattern of first falling and then rising. As of January 9, WTI crude oil rose by 2.53%, Brent crude oil rose by 3.65%, and SC crude oil rose by 0.12% [6]. - Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads: Near - month spreads strengthened slightly, and internal - external spreads fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. - Crack Spreads: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [24][35]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: Global crude oil production increased in November 2025. U.S. production decreased slightly in the week ending January 8, and the number of active drilling rigs decreased [57][81]. - Inventory: U.S. commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [82][92]. - Demand: In the U.S., implied demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, while refinery operating rates remained high. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [105][115]. - Refinery Profits: In China, the gross profit of major refineries decreased, while the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel remained stable [126]. - Macro - Finance: U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index rebounded [139]. - CFTC Positions: Net short positions in WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [149].