纯苯、苯乙烯周报：市场情绪反复，纯苯苯乙烯跟随-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market has large sentiment fluctuations, and it is expected that benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate [3]. - The Asian benzene market is affected by factors such as the strength of US benzene prices, downstream styrene market support, and market sentiment, maintaining a volatile state. The supply can meet the demand, and the overall demand is stable while overseas demand is weak [77]. - The Asian styrene market has rebounded, but high inventory and weak overseas demand still limit its upward space [126]. - The overseas benzene and styrene markets are both facing the dual pressures of improved supply and weak demand in the short - term, and the profitability is under pressure [68][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia has recovered but remains negative. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165 [3]. - Demand: As of January 5, 2026, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% and a year - on - year increase of 71.71%. From December 29 to January 4, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons and the pick - up was about 7,000 tons [3]. - Inventory: As of January 5, 2026, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period [3]. - Basis: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened. Overseas demand for blending oil has weakened, and Trump's foreign policy significantly affects oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in cost support [3]. - Profit: The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165. Styrene profit has slightly recovered [3]. - Valuation: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. Overseas export demand is driving up prices, and the market is paying attention to the strengthening of basis and monthly spread performance [3]. - Macro Policy: Trump is planning to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry, which may lower oil prices. If successful, the US will control most of the oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere and gain an important say in the final flow of crude oil [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: The commodity market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Crude Oil: Trump's policy changes significantly affect oil prices [5]. - Styrene: Non - integrated styrene unit profits are average, and styrene profits have relatively expanded [14][23]. - Pure Benzene: Pure benzene inventory remains at a high level [32]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - Styrene Downstream - ABS: In the off - season, demand is weak, and ABS profits are shrinking [46]. - Styrene Downstream - PS: PS production margins are weak, and demand is difficult to follow up [59]. - Styrene Downstream - EPS: EPS prices are at a low level, and inventory continues to accumulate [69]. - Pure Benzene - Aniline: Aniline production has declined, and margins have rebounded [79]. - Styrene Overseas: The overseas styrene market is in a post - holiday slump. Profits are expected to be negative in early 2026, and production is restricted by cost pressure [87]. - Phenol: Phenol port inventory remains at a low level [88]. - Adipic Acid: Adipic acid profits are low [99]. - Caprolactam: Caprolactam production load has declined, and inventory has been depleted [111]. - Appliance Production: Refrigerator and freezer production schedules and household air - conditioner production schedules are provided, but no specific analysis is given [122][124].