航运衍生品数据日报-20260112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is to "observe" [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a downward trend. Spot price quotes are differentiated, and some shipping companies have lowered freight rates, breaking the expectation of consistent price support. The new EU ETS regulations push up compliance costs to form support, but the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea and weak European demand limit the upside space. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and port turnover, and be alert to the risk of further decline in freight rates [6][7] Group 3: Summary of Specific Data Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI | 1647 | 1656 | -0.54% | | CCFI | 1195 | 1147 | 4.21% | | SCFI - West US | 2218 | 2188 | 1.37% | | SCFIS - West US | 1250 | 1301 | -3.92% | | SCFI - East US | 3128 | 3033 | 3.13% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1719 | 1690 | 1.72% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1795 | 1742 | 3.04% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 3232 | 3143 | 2.83% | [4] Spot Prices - Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January were differentiated. The quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam was 2700 US dollars/FEU (a month - on - month increase of 100), and the quotes from Ningbo to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Gdansk dropped to 2400 US dollars/FEU (230 lower than the European base port). - Hapag - Lloyd followed the alliance's rhythm, and the central quote dropped to 2300 - 2700 US dollars/FEU. - OA's quotes were loose in the first half of January. EMC's quotes from January 16 - 22 were 2800 - 2950 US dollars/FEU, still at a high level but with weakened price - holding strength. - YML's quotes from January 16 - 22 were 2600 US dollars/FEU, lower than OA and MSC, and temporarily did not follow Maersk's price cut. - MSC's quotes in the second half of January were 2840 US dollars/FEU, the same as in the first half, and did not follow Maersk's downward adjustment [7] Group 4: Market News - The US Supreme Court has scheduled Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time point to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the Trump tariff is ruled illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy. - According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the US action to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has further accelerated the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers shifting under the protection of the Russian flag. - The Asia - Europe route has entered the peak shipping season, and liner companies have increased capacity deployment. According to Xeneta, the capacity supply on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route this week has reached a record high. The pre - Spring Festival rush has begun on the Asia - Pacific - Northern Europe route, and there are signs of "frontloading" [5]