长江期货养殖产业周报-20260112

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Feed and Livestock Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Company: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - Pig Market: Supply pressure remains high, and futures prices are under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate and adjust, with a risk of decline. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and prices after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger but still above the equilibrium level [4][56]. - Egg Market: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price is expected to rise seasonally, but the sufficient supply will limit the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter may be alleviated, but the overall long - term supply pressure still exists [5][83]. - Corn Market: In the short - term, the supply and demand are balanced, and the futures price will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderately weak, which will limit the upside space [6][103]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Viewpoints Summary Pig - Spot and Futures: As of January 9, the national spot price was 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11770 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1160 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton [4][56]. - Supply: Since September, the inventory of reproductive sows has been slightly decreasing. The supply will remain high before the first half of the year and decrease marginally after August. In January, the planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises decreased month - on - month [4][56]. - Demand: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak. The high frozen - meat inventory will suppress the supply in the future [4][56]. - Cost: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows increased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was positive, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding narrowed. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly [4][56]. - Strategy: In the context of high supply pressure, short the off - season contracts on rallies. Be cautious about bullish on the far - month contracts. The industry can hedge at high levels above the profit [4][56]. Eggs - Spot and Futures: As of January 9, the average price in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the futures price of contract 2603 was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 89 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 137 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 51 yuan/500 kg [5][83]. - Supply: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January corresponds to the replenishment in August 2025, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the base is still large [5][83]. - Demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic demand is expected to increase significantly. The low price of pork and the high price of vegetables increase the substitution demand for eggs [5][83]. - Strategy: Currently, the basis is low, and the valuation is high. Do not short on the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the post - festival 03 contract at high levels [5][83]. Corn - Spot and Futures: As of January 9, the corn flat - cargo price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday; the futures price of contract 2603 was 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 67 yuan/ton, weaker by 37 yuan/ton [6][103]. - Supply: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The supply in the production areas slowed down, and the import policy grain auction had good results [6][103]. - Demand: The demand for feed is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to an increase in wheat substitution. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high inventories [6][103]. - Strategy: Do not chase the high price of the futures in the short - term. Holders of grain can hedge at high levels on rallies. In the long - term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply is sufficient, which will limit the upside [6][103]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - Weekly Market Review: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with narrow fluctuations. The futures price fluctuated more under the influence of spot and macro factors, and the basis strengthened [4][56]. - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of reproductive sows is expected to decline slowly. The production performance is at a high level in the past four years. The number of new - born piglets has been increasing since February 2025, indicating high supply in the first quarter of 2026 [16]. Eggs - Weekly Market Review: The spot price rebounded from the low level, and the futures price of the main contract was strong, with a slight premium over the spot [61][83]. - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining. The weekly number of eliminated chickens decreased, and the price of chicken seedlings increased [83]. Corn - Weekly Market Review: The national corn price was adjusted within a narrow range. The futures price of the main contract was strong, with a discount to the spot [89][103]. - Key Data Tracking: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The import of corn increased in November. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [6][103].