每周投资策略-20260112

Group 1: A-Share Market Focus - The export growth for 2025 is expected to reach 5.3%, supported by resilient non-US exports and a potential easing of US tariffs [10][12][11] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by several factors, including lower-than-expected US inflation data, which has increased market expectations for future Fed rate cuts [13][14] - Key sectors to watch include those sensitive to RMB appreciation, such as aviation, gas, and paper industries, which historically show significant stock price elasticity during appreciation phases [19][14] Group 2: US Market Focus - Economic growth in the US is projected to slow in the first half of 2026, influenced by factors such as the end of preemptive consumption and a slowdown in capital expenditures related to AI [31][35] - The K-shaped recovery in the US economy indicates that high-income consumers are driving growth, while lower-income consumers face increasing financial strain [35][31] - The upcoming Fed leadership change may influence monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts depending on the new chair's stance [36][41] Group 3: Oil Market Focus - The impact of recent events in Venezuela on oil prices is expected to be limited in the short term, with US oil companies likely to benefit first [49][51] - Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally but ranks 22nd in production, indicating challenges in translating reserves into output [53]