信用债市场周观察：配置重心继续放在短端

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a continued focus on short-term credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of 3 years or less, due to a stable funding environment and potential for interest rate arbitrage [6][9] - It suggests exploring opportunities in municipal bonds with maturities of 2-3 years and industrial bonds with maturities of 1-2 years, while advising caution on longer-term bonds due to increased uncertainty [6][9] - The report notes that the recent regulatory changes regarding bond fund fees have had limited positive impact, and thus, short-term bonds remain a more prudent investment choice [6][9] Group 2 - The credit bond market has seen a recovery in issuance levels, with a total of 269.9 billion yuan issued from January 5 to January 11, 2026, marking a significant net inflow of 131.1 billion yuan, the highest weekly net inflow since December of the previous year [14] - The average issuance costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds have increased, with average coupon rates rising by 16 basis points and 7 basis points respectively [14][15] - Secondary market activity showed a slight increase in turnover rates, with credit spreads generally narrowing, although long-term bonds faced more pressure [14][19] Group 3 - The report indicates that credit spreads for various bond ratings have generally widened, with 5Y-1Y spreads increasing by 2-3 basis points, while AA rated bonds saw a slight narrowing of 2 basis points [20][22] - Municipal bond credit spreads have shown a slight contraction, averaging a reduction of about 3 basis points across provinces, with Tibet experiencing the largest decrease of 5 basis points [22] - Most industry credit spreads also contracted by 2-4 basis points, indicating a generally favorable trend in the credit market [22]