美元债双周报（26年第2周）：美国经济数据分化加剧，财政主导风险升温-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market and the US stock market is "Underperform" [1][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - US economic data shows increasing divergence, with employment data dragging down interest - rate cut expectations, while the service sector is strong and the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Trump's order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in MBS increases fiscal dominance risk and may steepen the yield curve [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the annual increase was the weakest since the pandemic. After the release of the weak employment report, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January almost disappeared, and the first rate cut is expected to be postponed to June, with an annual rate cut of about 50 basis points [1] - The December ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, contracting for the tenth consecutive month, while the ISM services PMI rose to 54.4, the highest in nearly a year [2] - Trump's order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in MBS may accelerate the steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, and long - term interest rates are under pressure [2] 3.2 Exchange Rate - The report may analyze the trends of non - US currencies in the past year and recent changes, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index and other factors such as the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the RMB index [53][59][61] 3.3 Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), as well as the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds [67][69] 3.4 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took one downgrading action on a Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuer. On December 30, 2025, Moody's downgraded Vanke's rating from Caa2 to Ca [75][76] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration. Focus on 3 - 5 - year investment - grade bonds for stable coupon income, long the 2s10s spread to capture curve - steepening opportunities, increase TIPS allocation to hedge against service - sector inflation stickiness, and strictly control exposure to US Treasuries over 10 years [3] - In the next two weeks, focus on December CPI data and public statements by Fed officials [3]