玻璃纯碱：供给减量与成本扰动，价格反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Bullish. Recent supply reduction and supportive supply - demand conditions suggest a positive outlook [3]. - Soda Ash: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the glass supply side has seen a significant reduction. With the continuation of energy consumption dual - control and anti - involution policies, the expectations of supply reduction and cost support are strengthened. Although the price is generally strong, the medium - to - long - term pressure pattern remains. At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, policies are mainly favorable. Glass demand has resilience and supply reduction is obvious, while soda ash supply and demand are average [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bullish. The daily output of national float glass this week was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% from January 1st. The industry's start - up rate was 71.38%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points from January 1st, and the capacity utilization rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from January 1st. Two production lines were shut down for cold repair this week, and there are still many unexpected shutdowns for maintenance at the end of the year, with short - term reduction expectations continuing. Due to policy continuation, glass supply is restricted and cost support strengthens [3]. - Demand: Neutral. Demand has some support. Recently, the phased shipment of glass manufacturers has been good, but the terminal demand support is limited, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited actual support for overall production and sales [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. The total enterprise inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a decrease of 2.37% month - on - month and an increase of 27.04% year - on - year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis weakened oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread strengthened oscillatingly [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Valuation has been significantly repaired [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year [3]. - Investment View: Bullish. Recent supply reduction continues, and supply - demand has support [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on dips; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased significantly. This week's soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons, a rise of 8.11%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The resumption of maintenance enterprises has significantly increased supply, and it is difficult for supply to increase at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. Capacity expansion continues, and the medium - term oversupply pressure remains [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand has weakened marginally. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has remained stable, while that of float glass has declined [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Inventory has increased significantly. The total factory inventory was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons from last Wednesday, a rise of 11.67%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons, a rise of 6.93% [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis rebounded oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread oscillated [4]. - Valuation: Bearish. Valuation is average [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year, and market sentiment switches quickly [4]. - Investment View: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, no action; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price strengthened. The main contract closed at 1,144 (+57), and the Shahe spot price was 944 (-24) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price oscillated. The main contract closed at 1,228 (+19), and the Shahe spot price was 1,199 (+77) [12]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. - Glass: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Output has decreased. The reasons for supply reduction are the same as those mentioned in the main views. The production profit has improved slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.00 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.60 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders are average. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Real - estate mid - to - back - end completion data is poor. From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. Inventory has been reduced, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply has increased significantly, and the relevant output data is the same as that in the main views. The profit of soda ash plants has changed. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36%. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [36]. Soda Ash Demand - Demand is weak. The short - term direct demand has weakened marginally, with the daily melting volume of float glass declining and that of photovoltaic glass stabilizing. Inventory has increased significantly, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [37].