有色金属周报：反内卷叙事退潮，有色板块冲高回落-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution narrative in the non - ferrous metal sector has ebbed, leading to a decline after the sector's prices reached a high. The copper price is expected to stabilize and rise due to ongoing disturbances in the copper mine sector and positive signals of inflation recovery and economic stabilization in China. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the domestic surplus expectation gradually emerging. Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, with significant uncertainties in Indonesian policies [9][93][201] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing price monitoring shows various trends in different non - ferrous metals. For example, the US dollar index is at 99.1 with a daily increase of 0.28%, a weekly increase of 0.69%, and an annual increase of 0.88%. Industrial silicon is at 8,715 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.11%, a weekly decrease of 1.64%, and an annual decrease of 1.64%. Carbonate lithium is at 143,420 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.09%, a weekly increase of 17.96%, and an annual increase of 17.96% [7] 3.2 Copper (CU) - Influencing Factors: Macro factors are bullish as China's December CPI and PPI both turned positive, and the US December employment data was mixed, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. The raw material end is bullish with a tight copper mine supply. The smelting end is neutral with changes in smelting plant profits. The demand end is bearish as high copper prices pressure downstream industries. The inventory end is bearish with an increase in global visible copper inventory [9] - Investment View: Bullish. The copper price may stabilize and rebound due to ongoing disturbances in the copper mine sector and positive domestic economic signals [9] - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips for single - side trading, and there is no arbitrage opportunity currently [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Influencing Factors: Macro factors are slightly bullish with positive market sentiment. The raw material end is neutral with a stable cost center and limited upside for processing fees. The smelting end is neutral with an expected increase in supply in January and possible shutdowns in February. The demand end is bearish with a slow recovery in galvanizing and a seasonal off - peak. The inventory end is bearish with an increase in domestic social inventory and a slow - down in the increase of LME inventory [93] - Investment View: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the domestic surplus expectation gradually emerging [93] - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading should be based on the oscillating trend, and an internal - external positive arbitrage can be considered [93] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Influencing Factors: Macro factors are slightly bullish with expectations of a Fed rate cut and positive domestic economic data. The raw material end is slightly bullish with potential supply policy uncertainties in Indonesia and a seasonal decline in nickel ore imports from the Philippines. The smelting end is neutral with changes in production and profit. The demand end is neutral with an increase in stainless - steel production scheduling and a weakening demand for nickel sulfate in the new - energy sector. The inventory end is slightly bearish with an increase in LME nickel inventory [201] - Investment View: Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, with significant uncertainties in Indonesian policies [201] - Trading Strategy: For short - term single - side trading, the price range should be considered, and chasing high prices is not recommended. There is no arbitrage opportunity currently [201]