证券行业报告（2026.01.05-2026.01.09）：低利率+高成交+理性杠杆，助力券商维持景气度

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral, maintained [1] Core Insights - The current market environment is characterized by low interest rates, high trading volumes, and rational leverage, which supports the sustained prosperity of brokerage firms [4] - The Shibor 3M rate remains stable at 1.60%, indicating a very loose and inexpensive funding environment for the market [5] - The average daily trading volume of A-share stock funds has surged to historical highs between 25,000 billion and 35,000 billion since 2025, reflecting a significant increase compared to the low points of 2024 [5][6] - The margin financing and securities lending balance reached approximately 26,206.09 billion, marking a new high, with the growth driven more by investors' own funds rather than increased leverage [6][18] - The bond market index has shown signs of high-level consolidation, with recent trading volumes still remaining elevated despite a slight decline [19][20] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - Shibor 3M Rate: As of January 9, 2026, the Shibor 3M rate is at 1.60%, reflecting a stable liquidity transition around the New Year, with expectations of continued low rates in the near term [5][15] - Stock Fund Trading Volume: The average daily trading volume reached approximately 33,677 billion, a 34.32% increase from the previous week, indicating a significant recovery from the trading lows of 2024 [16] - Margin Financing Situation: The margin financing balance has reached a new high of 26,206.09 billion, with the growth momentum indicating a healthy market leverage level [18] - Bond Market Index and Trading Amount: The bond market index has entered a phase of high-level consolidation, with trading volumes remaining high despite recent declines [19][20] - Stock-Bond Spread: The stock-bond spread fluctuated between 4.70% and 4.81%, indicating a return to historical averages, suggesting that stock assets are no longer extremely undervalued [23][24] Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index increased by 1.9%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 2.79% [26] - Over the past year, the Securities II index has increased by 13.63%, significantly lower than the CSI 300 index's 25.59% increase [26][28]