PVC周报（PVC）：出口退税取消，盘面价格回落-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on PVC is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, with short - term expectation of oscillation [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PVC lacks obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate. In the medium - to - long - term, with few global PVC projects coming into production and capacity gradually exiting, the market trend is bullish. Factors such as supply, demand, and inventory are currently exerting bearish pressure, while profit, valuation, and macro - policies are bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short - term. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.67%, with an increase of 1.03% month - on - month and a decrease of 1.33% year - on - year. The maintenance loss of PVC production enterprises this week is 3.105 tons, a decrease of 0.228 tons from the previous period [3]. - Demand: Bearish. Downstream demand has entered the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up. The start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 35.40%, a decrease of 0.20% month - on - month and an increase of 2.27% year - on - year. In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 27.53 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.78% and a year - on - year increase of 29.64% [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. This week, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% to 111.41 tons month - on - month, and the PVC production enterprise's factory inventory production days increased by 5.47% month - on - month [3]. - Basis: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, and the current basis is - 267 yuan/ton [3]. - Profit: Bullish. This week, the profits of both PVC production processes increased month - on - month. As of January 8, the average gross profit of national calcium carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 634 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the average gross profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 192 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 87 yuan/ton [3]. - Valuation: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3]. - Macro - policy: Bullish. The macro - sentiment is warm, the RMB is continuously appreciating, and there is an expectation of rising crude oil prices due to the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - Trading Strategy: For arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for unilateral trading, buy on dips [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market fluctuated strongly this week. The market price was mainly affected by macro - expectations. On Friday night, after the cancellation of PVC export subsidies, the market price declined. On the supply side, there were no new enterprises under maintenance, but the start - up of some calcium carbide - based enterprises remained low. With the end of maintenance at some enterprises, production increased slightly. On the demand side, the domestic downstream start - up continued to decline, and export orders weakened. Due to the change in tariff policies, there may be a rush to export, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory [6]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production in Main Producing Areas: After the end of maintenance, the production in the northwest region is high [40]. - Demand Side: Downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the average downstream start - up rate has declined [69]. - Export: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. After the cancellation of export subsidies in April, there may be a rush to export. India's policy changes have led to a good situation for domestic product export orders, and there is still great potential for growth in subsequent exports [82][90].