纸浆周报：纸浆波动剧烈，预计震荡运行-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the pulp industry is that it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a trading strategy of a unilateral oscillating operation and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by macro - commodity sentiment, with limited internal drivers. Supply shows some strength, demand is neutral, and inventory is also neutral. Overall, the pulp is expected to oscillate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply is strong. Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp is 710 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the offer for broad - leaf pulp Star is 590 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; and the offer for natural pulp Venus is 620 US dollars/ton, remaining flat [3]. - Demand: The demand is neutral. This week, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while the prices of other paper products are stable. In the fourth quarter, the overall paper production increased due to the peak demand season [3]. - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports is 200.7 tons, up 1.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend [3]. - Investment View: The pulp is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the significant impact of macro - commodity sentiment and limited internal drivers [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate. For arbitrage, pay attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement: The pulp futures have been oscillating this week. Affected by macro - commodity sentiment and with limited internal drivers, it is expected to trade between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaf pulp has increased, and the basis of coniferous pulp has changed. The external offer of coniferous pulp has also increased [6][14][16]. - Position Change: As of January 12, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts is 307109 lots, up 0.2% from last week, and the position of the main pulp futures contract is 215480 lots, up 4.3% from last week [18]. 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In November, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume is 3246000 tons, up 23.99%; the coniferous pulp import volume is 725000 tons, up 4.92%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume is 1765000 tons, up 33.88%; and the broad - leaf wood chip import volume is 1490000 tons, up 55.69% [4]. - Inventory: The pulp inventory in ports has rebounded, and a large number of new warehouse receipts have been registered. As of January 8, 2026, the port inventory is 200.7 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory is 10450 tons, up 4.3% [3][4]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are generally stable, with the inventory of 20 major countries at 46 days at the end of November [36]. - Downstream Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while other paper prices are stable. In December 2025, the production of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The inventory of double - offset paper has increased, and the available days have also increased. The production cost of double - offset paper has increased, and the gross profit has decreased. In Europe, the demand for pulp has increased, and the inventory has decreased [39][48][62]. - Price Difference: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star has weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is basically stable [80].