纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with a weak supply - demand balance and limited upward momentum in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The glass futures market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. Although supply contraction provides some support, weak demand and high inventory restrict upward movement [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market declined first and then stabilized last week, with overall lower spot prices and weak trading. Supply is stable and rising, while demand from downstream industries is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation. The futures market rebounded in the second half of the week due to external factors, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and short - term volatility is expected. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. - Trading Strategies - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic soda ash futures prices rebounded from a low level last week, while the spot prices remained stable. Industry inventory decreased compared to the previous week, especially for heavy soda ash. The current supply - demand pattern is still loose, and downstream procurement is cautious. Attention should be paid to new capacity launches and pre - holiday restocking [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash market was generally weak and volatile last week, with lower spot prices. Supply increased while downstream demand was weak, and enterprises faced significant inventory pressure. Although the futures market rose after a decline, the weak fundamentals limited the rebound space [10]. - Related Data - The report includes data on soda ash开工率,产量,轻质和重质库存,基差, and ammonia - soda production costs in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - The glass market is in a narrow - range consolidation trend. The domestic float glass market was stable last week, with slight price increases in some regions. Supply decreased slightly due to cold repairs, but terminal demand weakened seasonally. Inventory performance varied by region. Overall, supply contraction provided local support, but weak demand restricted upward movement. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - Trading Strategies - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass market was generally stable last week, but the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. Although daily production decreased to a multi - year low due to cold repairs, weak demand led to continuous inventory accumulation, and losses in the industry deepened. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking and cold - repair implementation progress [34]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Some regions of the domestic float glass market saw slight price increases last week, but downstream demand weakened seasonally. Enterprises promoted inventory reduction through discounts, and the market was mainly in a narrow - range consolidation. The glass futures market was driven by supply contraction expectations and cost support, but weak demand and high inventory restricted upward movement. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction [35]. - Related Data - The report covers data on float glass产量,开工率, production costs and gross profits using natural gas as fuel,基差, and期末库存 [37][41][45].