电解铝期货品种周报-20260112

Report Overview - Report Title: "Electrolytic Aluminum Futures Weekly Report (January 12 - 16, 2026)" - Report Focus: Analysis of the electrolytic aluminum market, including price trends, supply - demand dynamics, inventory changes, and market sentiment 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The electrolytic aluminum market will experience a moderately strong and high - level oscillation in January 2026. The price may rise first and then fall due to the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and strong macro - drivers. The expected price range for spot aluminum in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait for price increases in the medium - term, and short - term long positions should exit and wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The market will be moderately strong and may experience high - level oscillations in January. The price may rise first and then fall because the supply - demand situation is weakening while macro - drivers are strong [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions and wait for price increases [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, and medium - term long positions were recommended to be held - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [9] 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Bauxite Market - Guinea bauxite transportation cost to the port is 20 - 45 dollars/ton. The expected CIF average price in 2026 is 58 - 68 dollars/ton. Domestic ore supply may tighten further, and imported ore supply is expected to increase [10] 3.3.2 Alumina Market - As of January 9, domestic alumina's installed capacity is about 1.1255 billion tons, operating capacity is about 95.90 million tons, and the utilization rate is about 85.74%. Newly added domestic capacity in 2026 is about 14.40 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Overseas newly added capacity may be limited. In January, alumina production cuts may increase [10] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December, domestic installed capacity was about 46.19 million tons, operating capacity was about 44.69 million tons, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. In 2026, global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear [10] 3.3.4 Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,300 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The EU's CBAM implementation may increase export costs in the short term [10] 3.3.5 Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 718,000 tons, up about 13% from last week and about 62% from the same period last year. Aluminum rod inventory is 174,900 tons, up about 25% from last week and about 30% from the same period last year. LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly [11] 3.3.6 Profitability - The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,720 yuan/ton, the spot theoretical profit is about - 40 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract theoretical profit is about 100 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.3.7 Market Expectation - The market will experience high - level oscillations due to the game between macro - factors and fundamentals. The price may rise first and then fall in January. The expected price range for spot aluminum is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices continue to decline. Coal prices rebound from the low level and may continue to oscillate. Alumina spot prices remain stable, and the market is pessimistic overall [12] 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Bauxite port inventory decreases, alumina inventory increases. Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increase, while LME aluminum inventory decreases [13][14][16] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation 3.6.1 Profitability of Domestic Aluminum Industry Links - Alumina has a theoretical spot loss of about 30 yuan/ton and a futures main - contract profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import profit is about - 50 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum has a production cost of about 16,800 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 7,000 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss is about 2,300 yuan/ton [19] 3.6.2 Downstream开工概况 - The weekly开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increases by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and开工 rate. It is expected that the开工 rate will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [25][26] 3.7 Shanghai Aluminum Futures Price Curve - The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a contango structure. The market is characterized by "increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high - price suppression of consumption". The price is mainly macro - oriented, and the spot market has a drag effect [29] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,450 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which has a drag effect on electrolytic aluminum [34][35] 3.9 Market Fund Situation - LME Aluminum: The latest fund net long position continues to increase slightly. Overseas funds are dominated by bulls, but there may be high - level fluctuations due to heavy floating - profit positions [37] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The main - force net short position increases. Institutional speculative net short positions increase, while industrial - client net long positions increase significantly. Main - force funds are cautious about the recent price increase [40]