JLSG(SH:600189) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-01-12 08:13Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company, as the first publicly listed mineral water company in China, is expected to benefit from national expansion, which will provide significant growth opportunities [6][68]. - The company has a strong strategic focus on its core business of natural mineral water, with plans to reduce losses in non-core segments [27][28]. - The mineral water industry is projected to grow steadily, with the company positioned to capture market share due to its unique water source and regional brand strength [60][66]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 1,122 million CNY, 2024A at 1,198 million CNY, 2025E at 1,274 million CNY, 2026E at 1,450 million CNY, and 2027E at 1,722 million CNY, with growth rates of -12%, 7%, 6%, 14%, and 19% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecast shows a significant turnaround from a loss of 457 million CNY in 2023A to a profit of 30 million CNY by 2027E, with growth rates of -900%, 101%, 137%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.64 CNY in 2023A to 0.04 CNY in 2027E [2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 5% market share in the national mineral water market, with a strong presence in the Northeast region, where it has a reputation for high-quality water [6][69]. - The mineral water market in China is characterized by high concentration, with the leading brand holding an 80% market share, while the company is the only one among the top five brands to achieve sales growth in the past year [60][63]. - The overall packaging water market is expected to reach 224.23 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3% [54]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase output by 400,000 tons from its core water source and an additional 2 million tons from a secondary strategic source, potentially leading to a revenue increase of 2.633 billion CNY [6][68]. - A new logistics model combining rail, sea, and road transport is set to enhance cost efficiency and improve profit margins [6][28]. - The company is actively pursuing partnerships and collaborations to enhance its market reach, including significant contracts with major airlines and retail platforms [6][68].