油脂周报：三篇报告即将落地，中加贸易题材重启-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of oils and fats is neutral - to - bullish, with attention on weather. Demand is bullish, inventory shows a mixed situation (palm oil is under observation, soybean and rapeseed oils are tight), and the macro and policy environment is bullish. The investment view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels, and expect soybean oil to strengthen [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is neutral - to - bullish, and weather should be monitored. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, South American dryness may affect soybean yields, domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally, there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil has entered the traditional production - reduction season [3]. - Demand: It is bullish. China is in the Spring Festival stocking period, followed by the Southeast Asian Ramadan stocking period. The US biofuel RVO has an uncertain impact, and domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil is under observation, while soybean and rapeseed oils are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory is high, but the overall situation in the producing areas is not as pessimistic as expected. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - Macro and Policy: It is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn affects biofuel and oil prices. The US biofuel policy is to be released in the first quarter, and Indonesia will increase export taxes for the B50 plan [3]. - Investment View: Wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels. The MPOB December data may be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later. Soybean oil is expected to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and Argentine weather. The key for rapeseed oil is when the supply - side contradiction can be resolved [3]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on soybean oil in the single - side trade. For arbitrage, go long on Y and short on OI, conduct P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads. Before the report is released, lightly go long on the volatility of P and Y [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The content mainly presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as various spreads such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 [5][9][14][15]. 3.3 Fundamentals of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - Southeast Asian Weather: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided [19][23][29]. - Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [32][36][37]. - Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand: Information on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory is given [38][43]. - Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread: Data on Indian imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the Argentine soybean oil - Malaysian palm oil spread are shown [44][49]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Information on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit is provided [50][52][54]. - Weather and Soybean Production: Information on future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, is presented [61][64][70]. - US and Brazilian Export Situations: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume are shown [75][79]. - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [89]. - Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed in different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are shown [90][92]. - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].