玉米周报：现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡-20260112

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn industry in the short - term is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot contradictions in the corn market still exist, with the grain - selling progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. Port inventories are low, and there is a certain restocking demand among middle and downstream players before the festival. The short - term spot price remains relatively firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress is nearly half, with the progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4] - Demand: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 43.8%. The high pig inventory supports short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and replenish stocks in a rolling manner. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are cautious. Traders have not yet started large - scale strategic inventory - building and have restocking needs [4] - Inventory: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The grain inventory at southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventory and deep - processing corn inventory are both at low levels [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis is neutral, and the C03 - C05 spread favors positive arbitrage [4] - Profit: Bearish. Pig and egg - poultry breeding profits are in the red, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are also in the red [4] - Valuation: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the corn futures valuation is relatively high; from the perspective of absolute price, the corn futures valuation is relatively low [4] - Macro and Policy: Bearish. The release of policy grains such as reserve corn, imported corn, and aged wheat has increased [4] - Investment Viewpoint: Oscillating. The short - term spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: oscillating; Arbitrage: C03 - C05 positive arbitrage [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, the prices at various ports such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port, the market average prices in Heilongjiang and Shandong, the futures contract positions of different months (such as C01, C03, C05, C09), and the spreads between different contracts (such as C03 - C05, C05 - C09) through charts [6][8][12][18] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Grain - selling Progress: The report shows the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China through charts, and currently the channel supply has decreased [22][24] - Port and Inventory Data: Northern port inventory and southern port grain inventory are at low levels. It also presents data on feed enterprises' inventory days, feed monthly production, and deep - processing enterprises' corn inventory and consumption [40][46][69] - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, as well as relevant data such as the number of laying hens and the number of parent - stock broilers in production [54][58][64] - Deep - processing Industry: The deep - processing corn consumption has seasonally rebounded, but the deep - processing corn inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has worsened, and the starch inventory is at a high level. Alcohol production has declined, and the processing profit has decreased. The demand for starch in the beverage industry is poor, while the papermaking start - up rate is high but the profit has declined. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and the flour demand is weak [67][75][87][105] - Futures Registration: The report shows the number of corn futures registered warehouse receipts through a chart [113] 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: The 2025/2026 corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered, and it presents the global corn production and its distribution, as well as the inventory - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [118][122][123] - Export Situation: US corn export sales have performed well, and it presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn through charts [125][126][130]